Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 5

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril)

Referee: Rosa D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Estoril Praia		AVS

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	4.75	Watch
	1.75	3.7	4.33
	1.7	3.7	4.7	Watch
	1.91	3.74	4.12
	1.74	3.82	4.43	Watch
				Watch
	1.72	3.82	4.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.67)	3.8 ↑ (3.5)	4.52 ↑ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estoril Praia
54.3%

Draw
24.9%

AVS
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

25.5%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

23.2%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estoril Praia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AVS than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Estoril Praia - AVS Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Estoril (1.88) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Estoril Praia will win (18 of 18 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Estoril Praia will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Estoril (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Robles J. (G) 44. Boma K. 4. Ferro 25. Bacher F. 2. Sanchez R. 10. Holsgrove J. 7. Lominadze N. 24. Amaral P. 99. Guitane R. 14. Begraoui Y. 12. Carvalho J. (C)	93. Simao (G) 2. Spencer D. 33. Santos A. 42. Devenish C. 24. Kiki (C) 27. Algobia A. 15. Grau J. 14. Perea O. 17. Lourenco B. 11. Akinsola T. 7. Tomane
Substitutes
90. Brito T. 22. Carvalho P. 18. Israelov O. 19. Lacximicant A. 9. Marques A. 55. Parente T. 45. Patrick de Paula 21. Pizzi 16. Turk M. (G)	4. Bane S. 10. Barbosa R. 20. Duarte D. 99. Joao Goncalves (G) 23. Mendonca G. 21. Neiva G. 18. Nene 3. Paulo Vitor 8. Pedro Lima
Coaches
Cathro I.	Mota J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', Sanchez R. 🟨,
11', Santos A. ↓, Paulo Vitor ↑,
12', 1 - 0, Lominadze N. ⚽, Sanchez R. (A),
28', 2 - 0, Carvalho J. ⚽, Guitane R. (A),
36', Holsgrove J. 🟨,
38', Kiki 🟨,
39', Algobia A. ↓, Barbosa R. ↑,
45+4', Boma K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 3 - 0, Sanchez R. ⚽, Carvalho J. (A),
55', Barbosa R. 🟨,
64', Sanchez R. ↓, Carvalho P. ↑,
66', Perea O. ↓, Bane S. ↑,
66', Kiki ↓, Neiva G. ↑,
66', Lourenco B. ↓, Duarte D. ↑,
67', Amaral P. 🟨,
72', Begraoui Y. ↓, Lacximicant A. ↑,
72', Holsgrove J. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
72', Amaral P. ↓, Parente T. ↑,
72', Lominadze N. ↓, Brito T. ↑,
78', 3 - 1, Spencer D. ⚽,
90+4', Parente T. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

AVS may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Estoril is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Estoril: Jandro (Inactive) Tsoungui A. (Knee Injury) Xeka (Injury)

There are questionable in Estoril: Costa G. (Inactive)

There are questionable in AVS: Bane S. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Estoril won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
06.09.25	Estoril Praia - Santa Clara	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Tondela - Estoril Praia	2:2 ✺
16.08.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Estoril Praia	3:2 ✺
11.08.25	Estoril Praia - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Estoril Praia - Millwall	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLTL
- AVS Futebol SAD
Liga Portugal
30.08.25	AVS - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	Braga - AVS	2:2 ✺
15.08.25	AVS - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
09.08.25	Arouca - AVS	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
20.07.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
04.04.25	AVS - Estoril Praia	0:3
09.11.24	Estoril Praia - AVS	0:0

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