Match Info

League One - Round 13

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Woods M. (Eng)


	Luton Town		Leicester City

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.70	3.00
	2.20	3.70	2.90
	2.15	3.75	3.00
	2.19	4.04	3.08
	2.2	3.81	2.88	Watch
	2.14	4.00	3.00
	2.12	3.74	3.03	Watch
	2.17	3.80	3.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.18)	3.82 ↑ (3.71)	2.99 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
43.8%

Draw
24.7%

Leicester City
31.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.8%

25.2%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

24.6%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Leicester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leicester City than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Luton Town - Leicester City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Shea J. (G) 25. Jones I. 5. Andersen M. 6. Johnston G. 3. Naismith K. (C) 8. Walsh L. 17. Mendel-Idowu T. 18. Clark J. 10. Donley J. 45. Palmer K. 21. Wells N.	29. McCarthy A. (G) 16. O'Hora W. 15. Souttar H. 5. Okoli C. 37. Alves W. 6. Lundstram J. (C) 25. Page L. 33. Thomas L. 36. Braybrooke S. 27. Doyle K. 17. Riis E.
Substitutes
44. Cole D. 12. Johnson J. 24. Keeley J. (G) 11. Lawrence E. 9. Marshall C. 15. Mengi T. 7. Richards J.	7. Burns W. 8. Chaplin C. 11. Cullen L. 14. De Cordova-Reid B. 24. Kangasniemi I. 21. Ravizzoli F. (G) 12. Smallbone W.
Coaches
Wilshere J.	Martin R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Wells N. ⚽, Clark J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Okoli C. ↓, Burns W. ↑,
46', Page L. ↓, Smallbone W. ↑,
64', Mendel-Idowu T. ↓, Richards J. ↑,
68', Lundstram J. 🟨,
73', Braybrooke S. ↓, Chaplin C. ↑,
76', Wells N. ↓, Marshall C. ↑,
83', Doyle K. ↓, Cullen L. ↑,
85', Palmer K. ↓, Lawrence E. ↑,
85', Lundstram J. 🟨,
89', O'Hora W. ↓, De Cordova-Reid B. ↑,
90', 1 - 1, Cullen L. ⚽, Riis E. (A),
90+3', Burns W. 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 1, Marshall C. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 13th and 10th).

Luton is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Leicester have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Luton: Baptiste S. (Knee Injury) Benagr B. (Injury) Kodua G. (Injury) Luker J. (Hamstring Injury) Morris S. (Hamstring Injury) Sandal S. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Leicester: Joseph J. (Inactive) Nelson B. (Knee Injury) Stolarczyk J. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Leicester: McFarlane C. (Inactive).

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Luton has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:5 (averaging 0:2.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Luton against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 0:5 goals (averaging 0:2.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Luton	12	6	2	4	24:20	4	20
11	Leicester	12	5	3	4	20:17	3	18

Outrights of English League One for now

Luton: 9.09% Leicester: 9.09%

Last Results with these Odds

Luton Town - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 42.84%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League One
20.10.26	Luton Town - Barnsley	2:1 ✺
17.10.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Luton Town	2:1 ✺
10.10.26	Wycombe Wanderers - Luton Town	1:4 ✺
English EFL Trophy
03.10.26	Colchester United - Luton Town	1:2 penalties ✺
22.09.26	Luton Town - Ipswich Town U21	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWWW
- Leicester City
English League One
20.10.26	Bromley - Leicester City	0:4 ✺
17.10.26	Leicester City - Doncaster Rovers	2:1 ✺
10.10.26	Leicester City - Peterborough United	1:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
06.10.26	Stevenage Borough - Leicester City	2:1 ✺
22.09.26	Leicester City - Fulham U21	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
24.09.19	Luton Town - Leicester City	0:4
Club Friendly
26.07.17	Luton Town - Leicester City	0:1

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