Match Info

League One - Round 45

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Wager H. (Eng)


	Luton Town		Barnsley

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.5	6.5
	1.46	4.45	6.4
	1.48	4.72	6.71
	1.48	4.35	6.34	Watch
	1.4	4.33	6.5
	1.45	4.5	6.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.57)	4.48 ↑ (4.15)	6.48 ↑ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
64.7%

Draw
20.9%

Barnsley
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

22.5%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.8%

21.6%

17.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luton Town's performance.

Barnsley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barnsley than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Luton Town - Barnsley Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Luton Town will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Keeley J. (G) 25. Jones I. 16. Odoffin H. 3. Naismith K. (C) 5. Andersen M. 6. van den Berg D. 8. Walsh L. 14. Morris S. 54. Palmer K. 32. Lawrence E. 21. Wells N.	1. Goodman O. (G) 7. O'Keeffe C. 6. de Gevigney M. 15. O'Connell E. 32. Earl J. 30. Bland J. 48. Connell L. (C) 8. Phillips A. 22. Kelly P. 19. Cleary R. 9. Bradshaw T.
Substitutes
12. Al Hamadi A. 22. Cole D. 30. Kodua G. 17. Lonwijk N. 27. Richards J. 23. Saville G. 1. Shea J. (G)	18. Banks S. 39. Farrell L. 51. Flavell K. (G) 17. Gent G. 10. McGoldrick D. 50. Nwakali K. 5. Shepherd J.
Coaches
Wilshere J.	Hourihane C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Wells N. (Penalty Awarded),
26', 1 - 1, Phillips A. ⚽,
45', O'Keeffe C. 🟨,
45+1', Earl J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Connell L. 🟨,
55', Walsh L. 🟨,
56', Bradshaw T. ↓, McGoldrick D. ↑,
56', Earl J. ↓, Gent G. ↑,
64', van den Berg D. ↓, Richards J. ↑,
64', Wells N. ↓, Cole D. ↑,
64', Lawrence E. ↓, Kodua G. ↑,
67', Bland J. 🟨,
70', Bland J. ↓, Nwakali K. ↑,
76', Phillips A. ↓, Farrell L. ↑,
76', Cleary R. ↓, Banks S. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Palmer K. ⚽, Andersen M. (A),
86', Palmer K. ↓, Saville G. ↑,
90+3', Morris S. ↓, Lonwijk N. ↑,
90+5', O'Connell E. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 7 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luton won 3.

Luton has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Barnsley has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Luton is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Hip Injury) Baptiste S. (Knee Injury) Holmes T. (Inactive) Mengi T. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Barnsley: Chirewa T. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Luton: Jones I. (Injury)

There are questionable in Barnsley: McGoldrick D. (Inactive)

We predict that Luton will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Luton won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Outrights of English League One for now

Luton: 6.34% Barnsley: 0.61%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Luton	8	3	2	3	16:15	1	11
19	Barnsley	8	2	2	4	8:15	-7	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League One
21.04.26	Rotherham United - Luton Town	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Mansfield Town - Luton Town	2:2 ✺
15.04.26	Luton Town - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
12.04.26	Luton Town - Stockport County	3:1 ✺
English League One
06.04.26	AFC Wimbledon - Luton Town	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WTWWW
- Barnsley FC
English League One
21.04.26	Stevenage Borough - Barnsley	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Barnsley - Bradford City	2:2 ✺
14.04.26	Port Vale - Barnsley	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Rotherham United - Barnsley	1:3 ✺
06.04.26	Barnsley - Plymouth Argyle	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
22.11.25	Barnsley - Luton Town	5:0
English League Championship
08.02.22	Luton Town - Barnsley	2:1
17.08.21	Barnsley - Luton Town	0:1
05.04.21	Luton Town - Barnsley	1:2
12.09.20	Barnsley - Luton Town	0:1
07.07.20	Luton Town - Barnsley	1:1
24.08.19	Barnsley - Luton Town	1:3

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