Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 39

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga)

Referee: Sanchez R. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Málaga		Sporting de Gijón

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.33	5	Watch
	1.58	4	4.75
	1.58	4.15	4.95	Watch
	1.59	4.5	5.6
	1.57	4.37	5.34	Watch
	1.53	4	5
	1.56	4.46	5.61	Watch
	2.1	3.35	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (2.12)	4.15 ↑ (3.4)	4.94 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Málaga
58%

Draw
22.8%

Sporting de Gijón
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

27.2%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

26.8%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Málaga's performance.

Sporting de Gijón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sporting de Gijón might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-13.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Málaga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting de Gijón than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sporting de Gijón could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88%	4%	8%

Málaga - Sporting de Gijón Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Málaga (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Málaga will win (22 of 25 users predict this - 88%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.26% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrero A. (C) 3. Puga C. 16. Murillo D. 4. Galilea E. 31. Rafita 10. Larrubia D. 23. Merino I. 5. Brasanac D. 11. Munoz J. 21. Nino A. 12. Dotor C.	1. Yanez R. (G) 2. Rosas G. 15. Vazquez P. 4. Perrin L. 44. Cuenca A. 5. Sanchez D. 10. Gelabert Pina C. 24. Smith J. 14. Corredera A. 7. Campos G. (C) 17. Dubasin J.
Substitutes
7. Abaida H. 9. Chupe 6. Enriquez R. 2. Gabilondo J. 14. Garcia V. 17. Jauregi E. 24. Lobete J. 13. Lopez C. (G) 20. Montero J. 35. Ochoa A. 36. Recio A. 37. Rodriguez R.	8. Bernal J. 47. Conde M. 18. Coundoul A. 23. Curbelo E. 3. Garcia P. 13. Joel C. (G) 19. Otero J. 27. Oyon A. 36. Rodriguez M. 20. Vazquez K. 30. Venteo I. (G)
Coaches
Funes J.	Jimenez B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Dubasin J. ⚽, Rosas G. (A),
25', Dubasin J. 🟥,
35', Brasanac D. ↓, Chupe ↑,
45', Dotor C. 🟥,
45+8', Cuenca A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Galilea E. ↓, Enriquez R. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Chupe ⚽, Enriquez R. (A),
59', Campos G. ↓, Otero J. ↑,
61', Smith J. 🟨,
61', Yanez R. 🟨,
69', Nino A. ↓, Ochoa A. ↑,
70', Chupe ↓, Abaida H. ↑,
76', Sanchez D. ↓, Vazquez K. ↑,
76', Cuenca A. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
81', Murillo D. 🟨,
83', Merino I. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
86', 2 - 1, Munoz J. ⚽, Rodriguez R. (A),
89', Gelabert Pina C. 🟨,
90', Rosas G. ↓, Conde M. ↑,
90', Corredera A. ↓, Garcia P. ↑,
90+2', Otero J. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Málaga is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Málaga: Dorrio J. (Muscle Injury) Juanpe (Injury) Lorenzo D. (Knee Injury) Luismi (Face Injury) Pastor A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Sporting de Gijón: Ferrari A. (Leg Injury) Loum M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Nacho Martin (Achilles Tendon Injury) Olivan B. (Inactive) Otero J. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting de Gijón: Queipo D. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:17. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Málaga won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Gijon	8	4	1	3	8:8	0	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
02.05.26	Eibar - Málaga	2:4 ✺
25.04.26	Málaga - Castellón	2:3 ✺
19.04.26	Almería - Málaga	3:2 ✺
11.04.26	Málaga - Las Palmas	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Deportivo A Coruña - Málaga	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WLLWT
- Sporting de Gijón
Spanish LaLiga2
03.05.26	Sporting de Gijón - Ceuta	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	Córdoba - Sporting de Gijón	3:2 ✺
19.04.26	Sporting de Gijón - Cádiz	3:0 ✺
11.04.26	Burgos - Sporting de Gijón	1:0 ✺
06.04.26	Sporting de Gijón - Real Sociedad B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
04.01.26	Sporting de Gijón - Málaga	1:3
17.05.25	Málaga - Sporting de Gijón	2:1
21.12.24	Sporting de Gijón - Málaga	1:3
29.01.23	Sporting de Gijón - Málaga	0:0
06.11.22	Málaga - Sporting de Gijón	1:1
09.01.22	Málaga - Sporting de Gijón	2:2
26.09.21	Sporting de Gijón - Málaga	2:1

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