Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 38

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Molinón (Gijón)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DirecTV Sports
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Inter


	Sporting de Gijón		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	1.51	4.5	5.25	Watch
	1.51	4.2	5.25
	1.47	4.45	5.9	Watch
	1.53	4.52	6.35
	1.51	4.5	5.88	Watch
	1.5	4	5.5
	1.52	4.53	6.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.65)	4.39 ↑ (3.75)	5.74 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting de Gijón
62.3%

Draw
21.4%

Ceuta
16.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

24.6%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

24.9%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting de Gijón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sporting de Gijón's performance.

Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting de Gijón than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sporting de Gijón that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Sporting de Gijón - Ceuta Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Sporting de Gijón will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Ceuta will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Sporting de Gijón (1.81) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting de Gijón (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Yanez R. (G) 2. Rosas G. 15. Vazquez P. 44. Cuenca A. 5. Sanchez D. 36. Rodriguez M. 24. Smith J. 10. Gelabert Pina C. 14. Corredera A. 7. Campos G. (C) 17. Dubasin J.	13. Vallejo G. (G) 7. Ahmed A. 6. Hernandez C. (C) 14. Bodiger Y. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 8. Zalazar K. 5. Youness 12. Illescas M. 26. Bassinga A. 9. Fernandez Sanchez M. 18. de la Fuente K.
Substitutes
8. Bernal J. 47. Conde M. 18. Coundoul A. 23. Curbelo E. 3. Garcia P. 13. Joel C. (G) 4. Perrin L. 11. Queipo D. 20. Vazquez K. 30. Venteo I. (G)	17. Almenara G. 34. Betancourt A. 20. Campana J. 24. Cantero Y. 27. Domenech M. 15. Gonzalez D. 30. Josema 1. Lopez P. (G) 3. Matos Jose 25. Sanchez S.
Coaches
Jimenez B.	Romero J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
26', 0 - 1, Cuenca A. (Own goal),
28', 0 - 2, de la Fuente K. ⚽, Zalazar K. (A),
30', 1 - 2, Campos G. ⚽,
32', Vazquez P. 🟨,
35', Rosas G. 🟨,
43', Bassinga A. 🟨,
45+3', Illescas M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sanchez D. ↓, Garcia P. ↑,
46', Bassinga A. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
46', Vazquez P. ↓, Curbelo E. ↑,
62', Gelabert Pina C. ↓, Queipo D. ↑,
63', de la Fuente K. ↓, Domenech M. ↑,
69', Domenech M. ↓, Matos Jose ↑,
69', Smith J. 🟨,
72', Queipo D. 🟨,
72', Rodriguez M. ↓, Coundoul A. ↑,
75', Fernandez Sanchez M. 🟨,
79', Queipo D. ↓, Conde M. ↑,
90', Redruello Nimo C. ↓, Almenara G. ↑,
90', Zalazar K. ↓, Campana J. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 12).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Sporting de Gijón may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sporting de Gijón is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Sporting de Gijón: Ferrari A. (Leg Injury) Loum M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Nacho Martin (Achilles Tendon Injury) Vazquez K. (Injury)

There will not play in Ceuta: Jamelli (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Sporting de Gijón: Otero J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ceuta: Anuar (Injury) Gonzalez D. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sporting de Gijón won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Gijon	8	4	1	3	8:8	0	13
21	Ceuta	9	1	2	6	8:20	-12	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting de Gijón
Spanish LaLiga2
26.04.26	Córdoba - Sporting de Gijón	3:2 ✺
19.04.26	Sporting de Gijón - Cádiz	3:0 ✺
11.04.26	Burgos - Sporting de Gijón	1:0 ✺
06.04.26	Sporting de Gijón - Real Sociedad B	1:0 ✺
01.04.26	Racing Santander - Sporting de Gijón	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLWL
- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
26.04.26	Ceuta - Racing Santander	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Zaragoza - Ceuta	2:2 ✺
10.04.26	Ceuta - Real Sociedad B	0:0 ✺
05.04.26	Eibar - Ceuta	3:0 ✺
01.04.26	Burgos - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
23.08.25	Ceuta - Sporting de Gijón	0:1

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