Match Info

Nakotnes liga - Round 24

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday


	Mārupe		Olaine

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.95	6.3
	1.35	4.96	6.71	Watch
	1.36	5.11	6.64
	1.33	4.75	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.35)	4.94 ↓ (4.96)	6.58 ↓ (6.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mārupe
67.8%

Draw
18.4%

Olaine
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.9%

18.5%

13.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.1%

17.7%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mārupe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Olaine has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mārupe than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olaine than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Mārupe - Olaine Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zandreiters R. (G) 11. Cebotarjovs V. 26. Jansons K. 23. Kirilins A. 6. Komorovskis K. 17. Korolcuks R. 7. Korsaks K. (C) 37. Korzans R. 14. Oliynyk M. 20. Speks R. 16. Sula M.	1. Balodis P. (G) 16. Artjomovs K. 5. Butlers R. 9. Cernovs K. 77. Moskalovs A. 8. Pantelejevs K. 23. Pavlenko E. 18. Ruja K. 21. Strelcovs I. 14. Strupiss K. 15. Vinogradovs J.
Substitutes
12. Bareika K. (G) 33. Calitis M. 9. Dobrajs M. 41. Garais P. 18. Roga R. 10. Sadovnikovs R. 15. Seliverstovs A. 22. Zarovs N.	3. Aivars E. 30. Andrejevs A. 35. Antipenkovs I. (G) 10. Hartmanis D. 2. Kozlovskis R. 17. Liepnieks A. 20. Zemlinskis A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Sula M. ⚽, Cebotarjovs V. (A),
45', 2 - 0, Sula M. ⚽, Korsaks K. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
57', 3 - 0, Oliynyk M. ⚽, Jansons K. (A),
71', 3 - 1, Pantelejevs K. ⚽, Pavlenko E. (A),
85', 4 - 1, Korzans R. ⚽, Zarovs N. (A),
90+2', 5 - 1, Cebotarjovs V. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 13 in the zone Relegation).

Mārupe is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Olaine has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Olaine may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mārupe is the obvious favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mārupe won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:7. (average 2.3:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Mārupe won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mārupes SC
Latvian 1 Liga
05.10.25	Rēzekne - Mārupe	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Mārupe - Skanstes	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Riga 2 - Mārupe	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Mārupe - JDFS Alberts	2:1 ✺
01.09.25	Rīgas FS 2 - Mārupe	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LLLWL
- AFA Olaine
Latvian 1 Liga
18.10.25	Olaine - Skanstes	3:0 ✺
04.10.25	Riga 2 - Olaine	7:2 ✺
28.09.25	Olaine - JDFS Alberts	1:6 ✺
20.09.25	Rīgas FS 2 - Olaine	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Olaine - Smiltene	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 51.2 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
29.06.25	Olaine - Mārupe	1:4
29.09.24	Olaine - Mārupe	5:1
25.05.24	Mārupe - Olaine	2:1

Mārupe - Olaine: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide