Match Info

Liga Alef North - Round 16

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday


	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth		Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.65	5.5
	1.54	3.95	5.24	Watch
	1.53	3.68	5.68
	1.55	3.75	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.35)	3.76 ↓ (4.54)	5.36 ↓ (7.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
58.9%

Draw
24.2%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.8%

20.2%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71%

19.3%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Maccabi Ahi Nazareth's form might have worsened.

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maccabi Ahi Nazareth than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Maccabi Ahi Nazareth, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth - Hapoel Umm al Fahm Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Abed A. ⚽,
14', 2 - 0, Mowasi H. ⚽,
32', 3 - 0, Suleiman K. ⚽,
38', 3 - 1, Bayan A. R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
79', 🟥,
90+5', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Leumit League and 16 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maccabi Nazareth won 2.

Maccabi Nazareth is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Maccabi Nazareth is the obvious favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Maccabi Nazareth won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Maccabi Nazareth won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	4	1	3	0	7:6	1	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Israeli Liga Alef North
10.01.26	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth - Hapoel Bnei Musmus	2:1 ✺
06.01.26	Hapoel Beit Shean - Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	0:0 ✺
02.01.26	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth - Hapoel Karmiel	2:0 ✺
Israeli State Cup
27.12.25	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth - Maccabi Haifa	1:8 ✺
Israeli Liga Alef North
19.12.25	Tzeirey Tamra - Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WTWLW
- Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Israeli Liga Alef North
13.01.26	Tzeirey Um El Fahem - Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	0:0 ✺
06.01.26	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm - Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	0:2 ✺
02.01.26	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmad - Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	0:3 ✺
Israeli State Cup
26.12.25	Hapoel Jerusalem - Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	2:0 ✺
Israeli Liga Alef North
20.12.25	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm - Hapoel Ironi Baqa al-Gharbiyye	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Israeli Liga Alef North
08.09.25	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm - Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	0:1
Israeli Liga Leumit
20.02.23	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth - Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	0:2
28.10.22	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm - Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	3:0
07.01.22	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth - Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	2:0
19.09.21	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm - Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	3:1
23.04.21	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth - Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	2:0
26.02.21	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm - Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	0:3

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