Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B - Round 24

Date: 29 March 2025, Saturday


	Machico		Alpendorada

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	2.65
	2.21	3	3.2
	2.31	3.09	3.09
	2.21	3	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.56)	3.02 ↓ (3.08)	3.04 ↑ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Machico
39.9%

Draw
30.1%

Alpendorada
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

29.3%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

30%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machico has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Alpendorada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alpendorada might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machico than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alpendorada than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Machico - Alpendorada Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, ⚽,
16', 🟥,
45+1', 1 - 1, Nilo Souza ⚽,
45+4', 2 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
90+6', 🟥,

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation and 6).

Machico is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alpendorada is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Machico won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:4 (average 0.7:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Machico won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Machico
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
16.03.25	Machico - Guarda FC	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Salgueiros 08 - Machico	2:0 ✺
02.03.25	Machico - União Lamas	0:1 ✺
23.02.25	Gondomar - Machico	2:0 ✺
16.02.25	Machico - Marítimo B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLT
- FC Alpendorada
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
16.03.25	Alpendorada - Coimbrões	2:1 ✺
09.03.25	Guarda FC - Alpendorada	0:1 ✺
02.03.25	Alpendorada - Marco 09	0:1 ✺
23.02.25	Salgueiros 08 - Alpendorada	0:0 ✺
16.02.25	Alpendorada - Camacha	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
08.12.24	Alpendorada - Machico	2:0
19.02.23	Alpendorada - Machico	2:2
06.11.22	Machico - Alpendorada	0:0

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