Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Group B - Round 21

Date: 2 March 2025, Sunday


	Alpendorada		Marco 09

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	2.8
	2.63	2.99	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (3.17)	3 ↓ (3.04)	2.75 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alpendorada
36.8%

Draw
30.3%

Marco 09
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

29.9%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

29.3%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alpendorada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alpendorada's performance.

Marco 09 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marco 09 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alpendorada than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alpendorada that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco 09 than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marco 09 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alpendorada - Marco 09 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
40', 0 - 1, Joel ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 7 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group).

Recent matches Alpendorada is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Marco is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Marco will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alpendorada won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alpendorada
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
23.02.25	Salgueiros 08 - Alpendorada	0:0 ✺
16.02.25	Alpendorada - Camacha	3:1 ✺
09.02.25	União Lamas - Alpendorada	0:0 ✺
02.02.25	Alpendorada - Régua	3:1 ✺
26.01.25	Gondomar - Alpendorada	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TWTWL
- AD Marco 09
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
23.02.25	Marco 09 - Camacha	4:1 ✺
16.02.25	Régua - Marco 09	0:1 ✺
09.02.25	Marco 09 - Leça	0:1 ✺
02.02.25	Beira-Mar - Marco 09	0:3 ✺
26.01.25	Marco 09 - Machico	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
03.11.24	Marco 09 - Alpendorada	0:3

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