Match Info

Super League - Round 22

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium (Pamekasan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Indonesia	Vidio


	Madura United		Arema

	1	X	2
	2.78	3.25	2.25	Watch
	2.62	3.53	2.62
	2.62	3.52	2.48	Watch
	2.8	3.3	2.2
	2.64	3.3	2.32	Watch
	2.6	3.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↓ (2.74)	3.36 ↓ (3.45)	2.39 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Madura United
34.3%

Draw
27.3%

Arema
38.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.9%

26.9%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1%

27%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Madura United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Arema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Madura United than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arema than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Madura United - Arema Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Diky M. (G) 44. Nurdiansyah 95. Mendonca 3. Monteiro P. 45. Hidayat T. 5. Palic K. 12. Rizki F. 10. Iran Junior 19. Riquelme 11. Lulinha (C) 9. Junior Brandao	30. Satryo A. (G) 2. Fahmi R. 66. Yama H. (C) 5. Walisson Maia 96. Iksan M. 25. Matheus Blade 7. Gabriel Silva 77. Gustavo Franca 10. Valdeci 94. Dalberto 9. Joel Vinicius
Substitutes
77. Alesandro F. 36. Ilhamsyah 99. Kusuma A. 69. Maulidino M. 7. Nufiandani A. 15. Numberi G. 68. Rusadi A. 6. Ruxi 30. Saputra M. (G) 2. Sasongko N. 28. Vedhayanto K. 4. Wehrmann J.	13. Balinsa S. G. 87. Farisi A. 6. Guevara J. 4. Guntara L. 14. Hariono J. 31. Lucas Frigeri (G) 12. Marasabessy M. 17. Mardiyanto D. 41. Santoso D. 72. Setiawan B. 27. Setiawan D. 11. Tuharea S.
Coaches
Biasi Parreira C. E.	Marquinhos S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', Mendonca 🟨,
43', Walisson Maia 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Junior Brandao ⚽, Iran Junior (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Valdeci ↓, Hariono J. ↑,
46', Iksan M. ↓, Guntara L. ↑,
46', Junior Brandao ↓, Wehrmann J. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Dalberto ⚽,
51', 1 - 2, Joel Vinicius ⚽, Dalberto (A),
61', Rizki F. ↓, Numberi G. ↑,
66', Matheus Blade 🟨,
76', Hidayat T. ↓, Kusuma A. ↑,
80', Gustavo Franca ↓, Guevara J. ↑,
86', Iran Junior ↓, Ruxi ↑,
86', Nurdiansyah ↓, Alesandro F. ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Mendonca ⚽,
90+3', Fahmi R. ↓, Balinsa S. G. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Madura United won 1.

Madura United has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Arema is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Arema may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Madura United won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 18:29. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Madura United won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1.1:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Madura United	5	3	1	1	10:7	3	10
11	Arema FC	6	1	3	2	12:14	-2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Madura United - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 33.89%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Madura United
Indonesian Super League
13.02.26	Persis Solo - Madura United	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Persijap Jepara - Madura United	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Madura United - PSBS Biak Numfor	0:0 ✺
23.01.26	Persija Jakarta - Madura United	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Madura United - PSIM Yogyakarta	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLTLL
- Arema FC
Indonesian Super League
15.02.26	Arema - Semen Padang	3:0 ✺
08.02.26	Persija Jakarta - Arema	0:2 ✺
02.02.26	Arema - Persijap Jepara	1:0 ✺
26.01.26	Dewa United - Arema	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Arema - Persik Kediri	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Indonesian Super League
23.12.25	Arema - Madura United	2:2
24.04.25	Arema - Madura United	0:1
21.11.24	Madura United - Arema	2:4
Indonesian President Cup
26.07.24	Madura United - Arema	0:5
Indonesian Super League
30.04.24	Madura United - Arema	0:0
28.10.23	Arema - Madura United	1:1
07.04.23	Madura United - Arema	1:1

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