Match Info

BRAZIL: Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 4

Date: 23 January 2025, Thursday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, BandSports, Brasileirao Play, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Vasco da Gama		Madureira

	1	X	2
	1.23	6	12
	1.22	5.5	15	Watch
	1.22	5.41	11.74
	1.25	5.42	12.76	Watch
	1.22	5	12
	1.19	5.95	13	Watch
	1.22	5.5	15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.42)	5.54 ↑ (4.1)	13.07 ↑ (6.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
76.1%

Draw
16.8%

Madureira
7.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

22.4%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vasco da Gama's performance.

Madureira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Madureira might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	18.7%	18.7%

Vasco da Gama - Madureira Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 9 - 60%). Madureira will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 38. Joao Victor 29. Lucas Oliveira 6. Lucas Piton 3. Tche Tche 8. Jair 18. Paulinho Paula 99. Vegetti P. 11. Coutinho 90. Alex Teixeira	31. Mota (G) 2. Celsinho 3. Arthur Edeson 4. Jean 6. Felipe C. 22. Caua Coutinho 5. Matheus Lira 8. Wagninho 20. Wallace 10. Marcelo (C) 9. Flavio Souza
Substitutes
16. Alegria 72. Bruno Lopes 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 26. Dominguez M. 25. Hugo Moura 21. Jean David 43. Lucas Freitas 85. Mateus Carvalho 10. Payet D. 2. Rodriguez J. 5. Souza 12. Victor Luis	15. Fuba 12. Guilherme Cabo (G) 21. Isaias 17. Jefferson Victor 19. Lucas Paraiba 14. Marlon 7. Minho 18. Pablo 11. Renato Henrique 13. Rodrigo Lindoso 16. Welington Zaru 1. Yan (G)
Coaches
Lima R.	Neri D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Paulinho Paula ⚽, Tche Tche (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Flavio Souza ↓, Renato Henrique ↑,
54', Tche Tche 🟨,
55', Paulinho Paula 🟨,
65', Caua Coutinho ↓, Minho ↑,
65', Matheus Lira ↓, Lucas Paraiba ↑,
66', Alex Teixeira ↓, Dominguez M. ↑,
66', Paulinho Paula ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
67', Jean 🟨,
71', Minho 🟨,
75', Coutinho ↓, Payet D. ↑,
81', Wallace ↓, Jefferson Victor ↑,
86', Jair 🟨,
87', Paulo Henrique ↓, Hugo Moura ↑,
87', Tche Tche ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
90+1', Leo Jardim 🟨,
90+1', Arthur Edeson ↓, Welington Zaru ↑,
90+6', 2 - 0, Vegetti P. ⚽, Rodriguez J. (A),

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 10 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca (Taca Rio: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vasco won 3.

Vasco is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Vasco is indisputable favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Vasco won 11 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 25:9 (average 1.7:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Vasco won 7 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 15:4 (average 1.7:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
19.01.25	Boavista - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
16.01.25	Vasco da Gama - Bangu	0:0 ✺
11.01.25	Nova Iguaçu - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
08.12.24	Cuiabá - Vasco da Gama	1:2 ✺
04.12.24	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TTTWW
- Madureira EC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
19.01.25	Portuguesa RJ - Madureira	2:1 ✺
16.01.25	Madureira - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
12.01.25	Madureira - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Rio
28.08.24	Madureira - Bonsucesso	0:2 ✺
21.08.24	Bonsucesso - Madureira	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
25.01.24	Vasco da Gama - Madureira	2:0
14.01.23	Vasco da Gama - Madureira	0:0
06.02.22	Madureira - Vasco da Gama	1:3
08.05.21	Vasco da Gama - Madureira	2:1
01.05.21	Madureira - Vasco da Gama	1:0
27.03.21	Vasco da Gama - Madureira	2:2
02.07.20	Vasco da Gama - Madureira	1:0

Upcoming Matches