Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 4

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Arena Barueri (Barueri)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 4
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Fanatiz
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	Fanatiz
World	TV Globo Internacional


	Palmeiras		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.9	5.25	Watch
	1.88	3.5	4.1
	1.68	3.7	4.95	Watch
	1.69	3.92	5.61
	1.68	3.88	5.16
	1.67	3.5	4.8
	1.7	3.86	5.14	Watch
	1.86	3.5	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.9)	3.72 ↑ (3.5)	4.9 ↑ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
55.1%

Draw
25.5%

Fluminense
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

26.8%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

27.4%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palmeiras's performance.

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Palmeiras - Fluminense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Palmeiras (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Palmeiras (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Palmeiras (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Palmeiras will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carlos Miguel (G) 12. Khellven 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 22. Piquerez J. 17. Marlon Freitas 8. Andreas Pereira 40. Allan Elias 42. Lopez J. 18. Mauricio 9. Vitor Roque	1. Fabio (C) 23. Guga 4. Ignacio 22. Freytes J. 13. Guilherme Arana 5. Bernal F. 8. Martinelli 11. Savarino J. 10. PH Ganso 90. Serna K. 32. Acosta L.
Substitutes
11. Arias J. 56. Arthur Gabriel 3. Bruno Fuchs 7. Felipe Anderson 4. Giay A. 6. Jefte 48. Larson 30. Lucas Evangelista 31. Luighi 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 19. Sosa R.	35. Hercules 21. Igor Rabello 3. Jemmes 9. John Kennedy 39. Keven Samuel 15. Matheus Reis 30. Moreno S. 94. Otavio 6. Rene 2. Samuel Xavier 7. Soteldo Y. 98. Vitor Eudes (G)
Coaches
Abel Ferreira	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', Fabio 🟨,
9', 1 - 0, Vitor Roque (Penalty Awarded),
13', 2 - 0, Allan Elias ⚽, Lopez J. (A),
25', Bernal F. ↓, Otavio ↑,
30', Freytes J. 🟨,
34', Martinelli 🟨,
35', Khellven 🟨,
40', 2 - 1, Acosta L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Acosta L. ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
59', Lopez J. ↓, Arias J. ↑,
59', Khellven ↓, Giay A. ↑,
61', Serna K. ↓, John Kennedy ↑,
61', Martinelli ↓, Hercules ↑,
62', Arias J. 🟨,
69', Ignacio 🟨,
70', Andreas Pereira ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
70', Vitor Roque ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
87', Allan Elias ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
87', PH Ganso ↓, Moreno S. ↑,
88', Marlon Freitas 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2.

Both teams have recently enjoyed a winning streak.

Fluminense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Palmeiras is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:13. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:3. (average 1.6:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48:21	27	60
3	Fluminense	29	14	9	6	48:36	12	51

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.02.26	Palmeiras - Capivariano	4:0 ✺
15.02.26	Palmeiras - Guarani	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Internacional RS - Palmeiras	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Corinthians - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Palmeiras - Vitória Salvador	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WTWWW
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
22.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
16.02.26	Fluminense - Bangu	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Fluminense - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.02.26	Fluminense - Maricá	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Bahia - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
22.11.25	Palmeiras - Fluminense	0:0
23.07.25	Fluminense - Palmeiras	1:2
08.12.24	Palmeiras - Fluminense	0:1
24.07.24	Fluminense - Palmeiras	1:0
03.12.23	Palmeiras - Fluminense	1:0
05.08.23	Fluminense - Palmeiras	2:1
27.08.22	Fluminense - Palmeiras	1:1

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