Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nubank Parque (Sao Paulo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	21:30	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	11:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	02:30	DAZN
Bolivia	20:30	ESPN
Brazil	21:30	Globoplay, Paramount+, TV Globo
Bulgaria	03:30	Max Sport 4
Canada	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	21:30	ESPN 5
Colombia	19:30	ESPN
Croatia	02:30	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	19:30	ESPN
Germany	02:30	DAZN Deutsch, Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	03:30	ERT Sports 2
Hong Kong	08:30	HOY TV
Israel	03:30	Sport 4
Italy	02:30	Como TV
Kosovo	02:30	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	18:30	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	02:30	ESPN
New Zealand	13:30	beIN Connect
Paraguay	21:30	ESPN
Peru	19:30	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	02:30	Polsat Sport 1
Serbia	02:30	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	02:30	Arena Sport 1
Spain	02:30	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Switzerland	02:30	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	21:30	Disney+
Usa	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	20:30	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
International	00:30	OneFootball TV


	Palmeiras		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	1.70	3.50	5.50	Watch
	1.70	3.40	5.25
	1.67	3.40	5.60	Watch
	1.74	3.45	5.88
	1.71	3.43	5.8
	1.71	3.35	5.80
	1.74	3.39	5.88	Watch
	1.70	3.50	5.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.67)	3.43 ↓ (3.85)	5.64 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
55.5%

Draw
27.7%

Fluminense
16.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56%

24.3%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.2%

22.5%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	18.2%	0%

Palmeiras - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: Palmeiras will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carlos Miguel (G) 26. Murilo 15. Gomez G. (C) 2. Barboza A. 4. Giay A. 30. Lucas Evangelista 17. Marlon Freitas 22. Piquerez J. 11. Arias J. 8. Andreas Pereira 42. Lopez J.	1. Fabio (G) 23. Guga 3. Thiago Silva (C) 29. Millan J. 13. Guilherme Arana 35. Hercules 16. Nonato 17. Canobbio A. 10. PH Ganso 11. Savarino J. 7. Hulk
Substitutes
56. Arthur Gabriel 43. Benedetti 3. Bruno Fuchs 7. Felipe Anderson 12. Khellven 48. Larson 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 18. Mauricio 10. Paulinho 19. Sosa R.	32. Acosta L. 14. Cano G. 19. Castillo R. 4. Ignacio 21. Igor Rabello 94. Otavio 6. Rene 2. Samuel Xavier 90. Serna K. 30. Soteldo Y. 98. Vitor Eudes (G) 34. Wesley Nata
Coaches
Abel Ferreira	Marcao

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Millan J. ↓, Ignacio ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Savarino J. ↓, Serna K. ↑,
49', Barboza A. 🟨,
56', Hercules 🟨,
62', Lopez J. ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
76', Arias J. 🟨,
79', Guga ↓, Samuel Xavier ↑,
79', Canobbio A. ↓, Wesley Nata ↑,
82', 0 - 1, Hercules ⚽, Wesley Nata (A),
83', Andreas Pereira ↓, Mauricio ↑,
87', Arias J. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
87', Giay A. ↓, Khellven ↑,
87', PH Ganso ↓, Acosta L. ↑,
Penalties (5 - 3)
1, Mauricio (Penalty Awarded),
1, Thiago Silva (Penalty Awarded),
2, Gomez G. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Hercules (Penalty Awarded),
3, Sosa R. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Guilherme Arana (Penalty Awarded),
4, Piquerez J. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Nonato (Penalty Awarded),
5, Marlon Freitas (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 2-1.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 3.

Palmeiras has enjoyed a winning run and is in top form (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Fluminense has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Fluminense may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Palmeiras for this game.

Confirmed absences for Palmeiras: Jefte (Knee Injury) Vitor Roque (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Fluminense: Alisson (Hip Injury) Cano G. (Hamstring Injury) John Kennedy (Knee Injury) Martinelli (Inactive) Matheus Reis (Knee Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras has recorded 9 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:17 (averaging 1.2:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Palmeiras against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 13:3 goals (averaging 1.4:0.3 per game).

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Palmeiras: 65.08%

Last Results with these Odds

Palmeiras - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 56.01%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
17.10.26	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.10.26	Fluminense - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.10.26	Palmeiras - Corinthians	4:1 ✺
08.10.26	Palmeiras - Bahia	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Grêmio - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWWWT
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.26	Fluminense - Santos	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.10.26	Fluminense - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.10.26	Flamengo - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
08.10.26	Fluminense - Coritiba	4:0 ✺
20.09.26	Corinthians - Fluminense	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
14.10.26	Fluminense - Palmeiras	1:2
Brazilian Serie A
15.08.26	Fluminense - Palmeiras	3:2
25.02.26	Palmeiras - Fluminense	2:1
22.11.25	Palmeiras - Fluminense	0:0
23.07.25	Fluminense - Palmeiras	1:2
08.12.24	Palmeiras - Fluminense	0:1
24.07.24	Fluminense - Palmeiras	1:0

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