Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 7

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Mafra		1 Dezembro

	1	X	2
	1.98	2.98	3.65
	2.08	3.09	4.02
	1.12	6.31	25.00	Watch
	2.04	3.13	3.86	Watch
	2.02	3.1	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.91)	3.72 ↑ (3.18)	7.99 ↑ (4.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
57.9%

Draw
28.7%

1 Dezembro
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

29%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

29.9%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mafra's performance.

1 Dezembro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and 1 Dezembro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mafra that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that 1 Dezembro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mafra - 1 Dezembro Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mafra (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Mafra (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mafra (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Silva P. (G) 90. Moreira R. 2. Camara M. 3. Alves K. 5. Beni D. 45. Sambu B. 8. Goncalves V. 30. Ninte M. 85. Neves L. 10. Lucas Gabriel 19. Iheanacho S.	47. Oliveira J. (G) 26. Freitas J. 31. Gaio P. 33. Mane L. 85. Infante A. 55. Vito 6. Lima P. 21. Isabelinha 99. Diawara M. 79. Cardoso D. 19. Dede
Substitutes
21. Djalo U. 66. Ferreira J. 7. Matos R. 35. Monteiro V. 9. Niang M. 6. Pinto R. 13. Raposo C. 99. Ribeiro L. (G) 4. Silva P.	10. Caetano D. 1. Duarte F. (G) 7. Ferreira D. 11. Flavinho 44. Gomes C. 20. Harramiz S. 23. Menezes L. 77. Nobrega R. . Wieselsberger J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
40', 1 - 0, Ninte M. ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Cardoso D. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
61', Lucas Gabriel ↓, Monteiro V. ↑,
62', Iheanacho S. ↓, Niang M. ↑,
63', 2 - 1, Niang M. ⚽,
67', Diawara M. ↓, Harramiz S. ↑,
73', 🟨,
75', Goncalves V. ↓, Pinto R. ↑,
76', Moreira R. ↓, Raposo C. ↑,
77', 🟨,
84', Isabelinha ↓, Wieselsberger J. ↑,
85', Cardoso D. ↓, Flavinho ↑,
90+2', 3 - 1, Ninte M. ⚽,
90+4', Gomes C. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Mafra have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

1 Dezembro is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Mafra has had a series of away games.

Mafra could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
28.09.25	Caldas - Mafra	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Celoricense - Mafra	1:0 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
14.09.25	Covilhã - Mafra	0:0 ✺
24.08.25	Mafra - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Lusitano GC - Mafra	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLTWL
- SU 1 Dezembro
Portuguese Liga 3
28.09.25	1 Dezembro - União de Santarém	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Peniche - 1 Dezembro	4:5 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
14.09.25	Caldas - 1 Dezembro	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Lajense - 1 Dezembro	0:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
22.08.25	1 Dezembro - Amora	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWTWT

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