Match Info

Pernambucano - Round 6

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadium Arthur Tavares de Melo (Bonito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Maguary		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	4.55	3.85	1.62
	4.51	3.72	1.68
	4.41	3.82	1.65	Watch
	4.33	3.4	1.67
	4.57	3.68	1.64
	4.75	3.8	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.52 ↑ (3.63)	3.71 ↑ (3.36)	1.66 ↓ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maguary
20.2%

Draw
24.6%

Sport Recife
55.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.2%

27.2%

47.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

26.4%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maguary has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sport Recife's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maguary than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sport Recife, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Maguary - Sport Recife Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Juliano (G) 7. Bruno Vinicius 2. Eduardo 20. Erick 6. Gabriel Fontes 4. Guedes 8. Italo 10. Julio Cesar 3. Mauricio Pinto 22. Memo (C) 29. Vinicius Kanu	1. Halls (G) 30. Chrystian Barletta 60. Felipinho 9. Gustavo Coutinho 11. Gustavo Maia 3. Marcelo Ajul 2. Matheus Alexandre 48. Pedro Martins 40. Ramon Menezes (C) 7. Yago Felipe 23. Ze Gabriel
Substitutes
12. Bruno Lopes (G) 17. Francisco 21. Gabriel Furtado 19. Henrique Paraiba 18. Iago Felipe 5. Jalysson 33. Keu (G) 23. Mattheus Silva 9. Mayco Felix 14. Nathan Silva 27. Richardson 15. Vinicius Barcellos	42. Adriano Sousa (G) 68. Augusto 29. Davi Gabriel 10. de Pena C. 71. do Rozario Teixeira F. 67. Felipinho 54. Gomes do Nascimento A. 31. Marlon Douglas 8. Max Alves 77. Micael 63. Patrick 99. Ze Roberto

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Italo (Penalty Awarded),
7', Italo 🟨,
17', Memo ↓, Iago Felipe ↑,
22', Erick ↓, Francisco ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Pedro Martins ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
46', Ze Gabriel ↓, de Pena C. ↑,
59', Matheus Alexandre ↓, Augusto ↑,
59', Felipinho ↓, Davi Gabriel ↑,
65', Italo 🟨,
67', Yago Felipe ↓, Ze Roberto ↑,
73', Bruno Vinicius ↓, Nathan Silva ↑,
73', Julio Cesar ↓, Mayco Felix ↑,
73', Francisco ↓, Jalysson ↑,
84', 1 - 1, Gustavo Coutinho ⚽,
90', Augusto 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Maguary has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Recife is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Recife is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Maguary won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Maguary won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Maguary
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
25.01.26	Maguary - Decisão	3:4 ✺
21.01.26	Vitória das Tabocas - Maguary	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Maguary - Retrô Brasil	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Maguary - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1 ✺
09.01.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Maguary	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWTTL
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
24.01.26	Sport Recife - Vitória das Tabocas	3:0 ✺
21.01.26	Sport Recife - Decisão	5:0 ✺
18.01.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	4:0 ✺
14.01.26	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Jaguar - Sport Recife	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
08.02.25	Sport Recife - Maguary	5:0
25.01.24	Maguary - Sport Recife	0:1
11.01.23	Maguary - Sport Recife	1:1

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