Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 3

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	MAXtv To Go, SportKlub 11
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Extra 1
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	Viaplay
India	ZEE5
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Disney+, FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Thailand	beIN Connect
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Peacock, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+
World	OneFootball TV


	Mainz		Eintracht Frankfurt

	1	X	2
	1.73	4.2	4.1	Watch
	1.73	4.20	4.10
	1.78	3.90	3.90
	1.78	4.2	4.45
	1.89	4.11	3.63	Watch
	1.75	4.1	4.35
	1.75	4.25	4.25	Watch
	1.78	4.2	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (2.12)	4.15 ↑ (3.76)	4.14 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Mainz
53.9%

Draw
23%

Eintracht Frankfurt
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

25.3%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

25.8%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mainz's performance.

Eintracht Frankfurt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Eintracht Frankfurt might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mainz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Eintracht Frankfurt than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Eintracht Frankfurt could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69%	17.2%	13.8%

Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 20 - 69%). Eintracht will win (votes: 4 - 13.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 17.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 52.2% – 85.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 3 - 50%). Eintracht (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Zentner R. (G) 4. Posch S. 3. Gruber F. 48. Potulski K. 6. Sano K. 19. Caci A. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 10. Amiri N. (C) 2. Mwene P. 23. Becker S. 9. Tietz P.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 37. Maluze J. 4. Koch R. (C) 3. Brassier L. 2. Baum E. 15. Aseko-Nkili N. 25. Onyedika R. 26. Kosugi K. 20. Doan R. 42. Uzun C. 9. Burkardt J.
Substitutes
16. Bell S. 21. da Costa D. 17. Hollerbach B. 24. Kawasaki S. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 15. Maloney L. 47. Nakuzola R. 20. Ruoppi O. 1. Schwolow A. (G)	29. Amaimouni A. 31. Arrhov L. 22. Chandler T. 34. Collins N. 11. Ebnoutalib Y. 27. Gotze M. 40. Kaua Santos (G) 5. Otavio 35. Pimpong M.
Coaches
Fischer U.	Hutter A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Uzun C. ⚽, Burkardt J. (A),
41', Onyedika R. 🟨,
43', Amiri N. (Penalty Awarded),
45+1', 0 - 2, Burkardt J. ⚽, Maluze J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
59', Aseko-Nkili N. ↓, Gotze M. ↑,
60', 0 - 3, Uzun C. ⚽, Gotze M. (A),
62', Caci A. ↓, da Costa D. ↑,
70', Gotze M. 🟨,
74', Burkardt J. ↓, Ebnoutalib Y. ↑,
74', Mwene P. ↓, Nakuzola R. ↑,
74', Becker S. ↓, Hollerbach B. ↑,
85', Amiri N. ↓, Ruoppi O. ↑,
87', Baum E. ↓, Chandler T. ↑,
87', Uzun C. ↓, Amaimouni A. ↑,
89', 1 - 3, Tietz P. ⚽, Ruoppi O. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 2.

Mainz is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Eintracht's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Eintracht has had a series of away games.

Mainz might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Mainz: Kohr D. (Foot Injury) Martel E. (Knee Injury) Nebel P. (Muscle Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone) Widmer S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Eintracht: Collins N. (Back Injury) Ngankam J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Eintracht: Chaibi F. (Illness) Knauff A. (Muscle Injury) Pimpong M. (Illness)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:26. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.2:1.3).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Eintracht Frankfurt: 0.46% Mainz: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9:10	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Eintracht Frankfurt - the odds 3.17 are the expected chance of winning is 29.94%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
06.09.26	Hamburger SV - Mainz	0:5 ✺
29.08.26	Mainz - Paderborn	0:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
23.08.26	Krieschow - Mainz	0:9 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Mainz - Bournemouth	2:1 ✺
01.08.26	Udinese - Mainz	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WTWWT
- Eintracht Frankfurt
German Bundesliga
06.09.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Augsburg	1:4 ✺
29.08.26	Union Berlin - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
21.08.26	St Tonis - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:11 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Brentford - Eintracht Frankfurt	7:0 ✺
12.08.26	FSV Frankfurt - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
22.03.26	Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:1
09.11.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz	1:0
04.05.25	Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1
21.12.24	Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz	1:3
26.01.24	Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz	1:0
27.08.23	Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1
13.05.23	Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz	3:0

Upcoming Matches