Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 2

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Reichel T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hamburger SV		Mainz

	1	X	2
	2.90	3.50	2.35	Watch
	2.85	3.40	2.45
	2.90	3.40	2.32
	2.93	3.50	2.50
	2.76	3.62	2.44	Watch
	2.95	3.45	2.40
	2.97	3.58	2.41	Watch
	2.95	3.50	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.54)	3.49 ↓ (3.56)	2.42 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
33%

Draw
27.4%

Mainz
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

26.5%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

27.1%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.6%	26.3%	42.1%

Hamburger SV - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). Mainz will win (votes: 8 - 42.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 19.9% – 64.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Hamburg (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hamburg (1.59) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. 33. Bornauw S. 23. Torunarigha J. 7. El Ouahdi Z. 4. Nadir B. 21. Remberg N. (C) 3. Wolfe D. 5. Adeline M. 11. Gronbaek A. 9. Moffi T.	1. Schwolow A. (G) 4. Posch S. 3. Gruber F. 48. Potulski K. 19. Caci A. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 6. Sano K. 10. Amiri N. (C) 2. Mwene P. 9. Tietz P. 23. Becker S.
Substitutes
22. Amoako K. 27. Daka P. 18. Jatta B. 37. Lemke L. 43. Nandja S. 15. Poulsen Y. 19. Stange O. 12. Tangvik S. (G) 20. Vieira F.	16. Bell S. 21. da Costa D. 17. Hollerbach B. 24. Kawasaki S. 40. Kinzig M. (G) 11. Konigsdorffer R. 15. Maloney L. 47. Nakuzola R. 20. Ruoppi O.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
19', 0 - 1, Becker S. ⚽, Sano K. (A),
31', Caci A. 🟨,
36', El Ouahdi Z. 🟨,
41', 0 - 2, Mwene P. ⚽, Becker S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Nadir B. ↓, Vieira F. ↑,
46', Adeline M. ↓, Daka P. ↑,
46', Torunarigha J. ↓, Nandja S. ↑,
48', 0 - 3, Tietz P. ⚽, Becker S. (A),
64', Moffi T. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
68', Becker S. ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
81', Caci A. ↓, da Costa D. ↑,
83', 0 - 4, Tietz P. ⚽, Lee Jae-Sung (A),
84', Wolfe D. ↓, Lemke L. ↑,
85', Mwene P. 🟨,
88', Posch S. ↓, Nakuzola R. ↑,
88', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Ruoppi O. ↑,
88', Sano K. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 5, Konigsdorffer R. ⚽, Mwene P. (A),
90+4', Becker S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 1.

Hamburg has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mainz is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Hamburg has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Hamburg: Omari W. (Personal Reasons) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Kohr D. (Foot Injury) Martel E. (Knee Injury) Nebel P. (Muscle Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Muheim M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Hollerbach B. (Lacking Match Fitness)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:19. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.3:0.9).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2:13	-11	3

Last Results with these Odds

Hamburger SV - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 37.2%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
29.08.26	Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV	2:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
24.08.26	Verl - Hamburger SV	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Toulouse - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
01.08.26	Hamburger SV - Everton	1:2 ✺
25.07.26	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWWLW
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
29.08.26	Mainz - Paderborn	0:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
23.08.26	Krieschow - Mainz	0:9 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Mainz - Bournemouth	2:1 ✺
01.08.26	Udinese - Mainz	3:3 ✺
31.07.26	Mainz - Shabab Al-Ahli	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
20.02.26	Mainz - Hamburger SV	1:1
05.10.25	Hamburger SV - Mainz	4:0
03.03.18	Hamburger SV - Mainz	0:0
14.10.17	Mainz - Hamburger SV	3:2
07.05.17	Hamburger SV - Mainz	0:0
17.12.16	Mainz - Hamburger SV	3:1
30.04.16	Mainz - Hamburger SV	0:0

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