Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 1

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2
Brazil	SportyNet
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	SportKlub 12
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5
Germany	Laola1, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Disney+, FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	DAZN / App
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Sweden	Viaplay
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+
World	OneFootball TV


	Mainz		Paderborn

	1	X	2
	1.50	4.50	6.00	Watch
	1.52	4.60	5.50
	1.48	4.50	5.75	Watch
	1.57	4.75	5.93
	1.51	4.7	5.8	Watch
	1.54	4.55	5.80
	1.54	4.61	6.14	Watch
	1.54	4.90	5.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.72)	4.64 ↑ (3.95)	5.82 ↑ (4.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Mainz
62.9%

Draw
20.7%

Paderborn
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

24%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mainz's performance.

Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.5%	18.5%	0%

Mainz - Paderborn Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Mainz (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Mainz (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Mainz will win (22 of 27 users predict this - 81.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.83% – 96.13%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Zentner R. (G) 21. da Costa D. 3. Gruber F. 31. Kohr D. 6. Sano K. 19. Caci A. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 10. Amiri N. 2. Mwene P. 23. Becker S. 9. Tietz P.	15. Noll N. (G) 21. ter Horst J. 25. Scheller T. 22. Hansen M. 17. Curda L. (C) 28. Ulrich L. 5. Castaneda S. 23. Obermair R. 30. Marino S. 18. Pieringer M. 40. Vidovic G.
Substitutes
24. Kawasaki S. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 15. Maloney L. 47. Nakuzola R. 4. Posch S. 48. Potulski K. 20. Ruoppi O. 1. Schwolow A. (G) 30. Widmer S.	6. Baack T. 7. Batista Meier O. 8. Djuric L. 29. Lippmann C. 24. Mohr N. 1. Schubert M. (G) 3. Sticker J. 27. Tigges S. 38. Zeitler D.
Coaches
Fischer U.	Kettemann R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Castaneda S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
67', Marino S. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
68', Becker S. ↓, Ruoppi O. ↑,
68', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
72', Hansen M. 🟨,
73', Caci A. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
75', Hansen M. ↓, Sticker J. ↑,
75', Ulrich L. ↓, Baack T. ↑,
80', Kohr D. ↓, Potulski K. ↑,
90+1', Mwene P. 🟨,
90+2', Pieringer M. ↓, Lippmann C. ↑,

Preview

Mainz is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Paderborn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mainz is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Mainz: Hollerbach B. (Lacking Match Fitness) Martel E. (Knee Injury) Nebel P. (Muscle Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone)

There will not play in Paderborn: Awortwie-Grant N. (Knee Injury) Eickel L. (Inactive) Gayret T. (Knee Injury) Michel S. (Muscle Injury)

We predict that Mainz will win today's game, with odds of 1.68.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:3. (average 2.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:0. (average 3.5:0).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.29% Paderborn: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7
12	Paderborn	4	1	1	2	3:5	-2	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German DFB Pokal
23.08.26	Krieschow - Mainz	0:9 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Mainz - Bournemouth	2:1 ✺
01.08.26	Udinese - Mainz	3:3 ✺
31.07.26	Mainz - Shabab Al-Ahli	1:0 ✺
25.07.26	Mainz - Holstein Kiel	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WWTWW
- SC Paderborn 07
German DFB Pokal
23.08.26	Phönix Lübeck - Paderborn	2:4 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.26	Paderborn - Fagiano Okayama	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
25.05.26	Paderborn - Wolfsburg	2:1 ET ✺
21.05.26	Wolfsburg - Paderborn	0:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
17.05.26	Darmstadt - Paderborn	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
29.02.20	Mainz - Paderborn	2:0
05.10.19	Paderborn - Mainz	1:2
31.01.15	Mainz - Paderborn	5:0
24.08.14	Paderborn - Mainz	2:2

Upcoming Matches