Match Info

Regionalliga Sudwest - Round 14

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Mainz II		Freiberg

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.75	2.22
	2.74	3.84	2.14	Watch
	2.66	3.68	2.22
	2.48	3.8	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↓ (2.74)	3.77 ↓ (3.84)	2.23 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz II
34.6%

Draw
24.3%

Freiberg
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

23.8%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

24.2%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz II has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Freiberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz II than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiberg than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Mainz II - Freiberg Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', 1 - 0, Gitau A. ⚽,
71', 1 - 1, Valpoort M. ⚽,
87', 2 - 1, Malli Y. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ 3. Liga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz II won 3.

Mainz II is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Freiberg has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Mainz II won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz II won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1.3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz II
German Regionalliga Sudwest
18.10.25	Sandhausen - Mainz II	2:2 ✺
11.10.25	Mainz II - Balingen	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Bahlinger - Mainz II	1:1 ✺
30.09.25	Mainz II - Eintracht Trier	3:2 ✺
26.09.25	Schott Mainz - Mainz II	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWTWW
- SGV Freiberg
German Regionalliga Sudwest
18.10.25	Freiberg - Sonnenhof Großaspach	1:1 ✺
11.10.25	TSV Steinbach Haiger - Freiberg	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Freiberg - Homburg	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Stuttgarter Kickers - Freiberg	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Freiberg - Hessen Kassel	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga Sudwest
05.04.25	Freiberg - Mainz II	0:1
05.10.24	Mainz II - Freiberg	3:2
27.04.24	Mainz II - Freiberg	0:2
21.10.23	Freiberg - Mainz II	1:2
08.04.23	Freiberg - Mainz II	4:0
02.10.22	Mainz II - Freiberg	1:2

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