Match Info

Serie D - Round 7

Date: 31 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Arena da Amazonia (Manaus)


	Manaus		Independência

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.2	6.8
	1.4	4.04	6.93
	1.4	4.3	6.96	Watch
	1.49	4.52	5.74
	1.41	4.2	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.56)	4.25 ↑ (3.75)	6.65 ↑ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manaus
64.6%

Draw
21.6%

Independência
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

24.3%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3%

23.5%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manaus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Manaus's performance.

Independência has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manaus than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Manaus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independência than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Manaus - Independência Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Dede ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals))

Recent performances by Manaus have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Independência is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Manaus is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Manaus won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manaus FC
Brazilian Serie D
24.05.25	Grêmio Atlético Sampaio - Manaus	1:2 ✺
17.05.25	Manaus - Manauara	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	Tuna Luso Brasileira - Manaus	3:0 ✺
03.05.25	Águia de Marabá - Manaus	1:1 ✺
26.04.25	Manaus - Humaitá	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTLTW
- Independência FC
Brazilian Serie D
27.05.25	Independência - Tuna Luso Brasileira	0:0 ✺
21.05.25	Trem - Independência	1:2 ✺
10.05.25	Independência - Grêmio Atlético Sampaio	4:1 ✺
04.05.25	Humaitá - Independência	1:3 ✺
27.04.25	Independência - Águia de Marabá	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
19.02.25	Independência - Manaus	1:2 penalties

Manaus - Independência: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide