Match Info

1. Lig - Round 28

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday

Location: Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu (Manisa)

Referee: Guldibi O. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Manisa FK		Çorum

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.6	1.91	Watch
	3.29	3.48	2	Watch
	3.41	3.73	2.04
	3.05	3.7	2.12
	3.2	3.5	2.05
	3.26	3.78	2.01	Watch
	3.2	3.4	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↓ (3.3)	3.6 ↑ (3.52)	2.02 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manisa FK
28.7%

Draw
25.6%

Çorum
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

26.1%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

26.8%

47.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manisa FK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Çorum has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manisa FK than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Çorum than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Manisa FK - Çorum Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Manisa will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Çorum will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Çorum: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Manisa (votes: 1 - 50%). Çorum (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Manisa (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Manisa (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Manisa (votes: 3 - 75%). Çorum (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Karakus V. (G) 45. Karapo A. 4. Herelle C. 8. Sonmez K. 19. Erdem U. 60. Toure B. (C) 10. Lindseth J. 17. Kahraman O. 20. Benrahou Y. 7. Vargas A. 9. Diony L.	13. Sehic I. (C) 23. Ergun U. 5. Osmanoglu S. 3. Attamah J. 39. Kas E. 7. Gurler S. 16. Fredy 14. Pedrinho 77. Coban B. 17. Thiam M. 66. Ildiz A.
Substitutes
11. Adekanye B. 21. Akboga E. 22. Bodur S. (G) 77. Can Aslan U. 25. Cissokho M. 24. Dursun Y. 13. Ibik A. 23. Kiprit M. 65. Sen A. 29. Yurtdas O.	8. Akkaynak A. 9. Aleksic D. 10. Erdogan Y. 20. Gurbulak O. 22. Kalafat K. 1. Kivanc A. (G) 18. Samudio B. 33. Sarikaya E. 19. Sertel C. 6. Yazgan F.
Coaches
Pektas A.	Ucar U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Thiam M. (Penalty Awarded),
21', Toure B. ↓, Cissokho M. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Herelle C. 🟨,
55', Fredy 🟨,
58', Karapo A. 🟨,
64', Kahraman O. ↓, Ibik A. ↑,
64', Lindseth J. ↓, Adekanye B. ↑,
69', Pedrinho 🟨,
74', Ildiz A. ↓, Yazgan F. ↑,
74', Gurler S. ↓, Erdogan Y. ↑,
77', Cissokho M. 🟨,
80', Coban B. ↓, Samudio B. ↑,
84', Pedrinho ↓, Gurbulak O. ↑,
89', Vargas A. ↓, Kiprit M. ↑,
90+2', Thiam M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ 1. Lig (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manisa won 0.

Manisa is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Çorum has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Çorum is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Çorum: Cangoz A. (Suspended) Geraldo (Inactive) Karadag E. (Suspended) Sengul A. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Manisa won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1.5:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Manisa won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Manisa FK	8	2	3	3	12:12	0	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manisa FK
Turkish First League
22.02.26	Bodrumspor - Manisa FK	1:2 ✺
18.02.26	Manisa FK - Bandırmaspor	3:2 ✺
13.02.26	Erokspor - Manisa FK	3:1 ✺
08.02.26	Manisa FK - Boluspor	4:1 ✺
31.01.26	Igdirspor - Manisa FK	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 WWLWT
- Çorum FK
Turkish First League
22.02.26	Çorum - Umraniyespor	2:0 ✺
18.02.26	Serik Belediyespor - Çorum	2:3 ✺
13.02.26	Çorum - İstanbulspor	2:3 ✺
07.02.26	Vanspor - Çorum	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	Çorum - Keçiörengücü	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
03.10.25	Çorum - Manisa FK	3:1
13.04.25	Çorum - Manisa FK	3:2
07.12.24	Manisa FK - Çorum	0:1
16.03.24	Çorum - Manisa FK	4:3
29.10.23	Manisa FK - Çorum	2:2
Turkish Second League White Group
27.01.21	Manisa FK - Çorum	1:0

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