Match Info

1. Lig - Round 30

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Mumin Ozkasap Stadyumu (Manisa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Manisa FK		Sarıyer

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.1	2.45	Watch
	2.67	3.1	2.53
	2.77	3.35	2.64
	2.65	3.38	2.52	Watch
	2.63	3.1	2.5
	2.68	3.26	2.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.08)	3.22 ↓ (3.55)	2.54 ↓ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manisa FK
34.8%

Draw
28.8%

Sarıyer
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

26%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

25.8%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manisa FK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Manisa FK's form might have worsened.

Sarıyer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sarıyer's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manisa FK than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Manisa FK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarıyer than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sarıyer, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	18.2%	18.2%

Manisa FK - Sarıyer Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Manisa will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Sarıyer will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Manisa: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sarıyer (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Sarıyer (1.81) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Manisa (1.47) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

EH +1 - Manisa (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Manisa (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Manisa (votes: 5 - 50%). Sarıyer (votes: 4 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Karakus V. (G) 45. Karapo A. 4. Herelle C. 8. Sonmez K. 19. Erdem U. 25. Cissokho M. (C) 23. Kiprit M. 10. Lindseth J. 7. Vargas A. 11. Adekanye B. 9. Diony L.	23. Bayram M. (G) 77. Karayel C. 4. Ozer F. 20. Osmanpasa C. 19. Bayram O. (C) 28. Yesilyurt H. E. 27. Kulasin E. 53. Poko A. 88. Silva M. 70. Camara M. 90. Eze E.
Substitutes
21. Akboga E. 99. Basar M. (G) 77. Can Aslan U. 24. Dursun Y. 27. Gureler Y. 13. Ibik A. 17. Kahraman O. 65. Sen A. 2. Talum Y. 32. Uslu M.	97. Akyuz F. (G) 17. Aydogmus B. 92. Ekmekci A. 35. Kara A. 91. Kor B. 5. Korkmazoglu E. 14. Mert M. 48. Sol O. 6. Traore H. 22. Yilmaz O.
Coaches
Pektas A.	Cetin S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Kiprit M. 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, Diony L. ⚽, Karapo A. (A),
20', Cissokho M. 🟨,
42', Bayram O. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Eze E. ↓, Kor B. ↑,
47', Cissokho M. 🟨,
53', Ozer F. 🟨,
55', Kiprit M. ↓, Dursun Y. ↑,
57', 2 - 0, Adekanye B. ⚽, Lindseth J. (A),
60', Kulasin E. ↓, Sol O. ↑,
63', Yesilyurt H. E. ↓, Kara A. ↑,
68', Ozer F. ↓, Mert M. ↑,
74', Adekanye B. ↓, Talum Y. ↑,
76', Osmanpasa C. ↓, Ekmekci A. ↑,
86', Dursun Y. 🟨,
87', Vargas A. ↓, Kahraman O. ↑,
87', Sonmez K. ↓, Gureler Y. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 0, Kahraman O. ⚽, Diony L. (A),
90+5', Sol O. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 16).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Sarıyer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Sarıyer: Babacar K. (Inactive) Djilobodji P. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Sarıyer: Eze E. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manisa won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.2:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Manisa won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Sariyer	8	4	2	2	11:9	2	14
13	Manisa FK	8	2	3	3	12:12	0	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manisa FK
Turkish First League
07.03.26	Erzurumspor - Manisa FK	8:1 ✺
02.03.26	Manisa FK - Çorum	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Bodrumspor - Manisa FK	1:2 ✺
18.02.26	Manisa FK - Bandırmaspor	3:2 ✺
13.02.26	Erokspor - Manisa FK	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LLWWL
- Sarıyer
Turkish First League
06.03.26	Sarıyer - Umraniyespor	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Sakaryaspor - Sarıyer	0:0 ✺
23.02.26	Sarıyer - Adana Demirspor	5:0 ✺
19.02.26	Sarıyer - Amed SK	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Pendikspor - Sarıyer	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
25.10.25	Sarıyer - Manisa FK	0:0
Turkish Second League White Group
02.05.21	Sarıyer - Manisa FK	0:0
30.12.20	Manisa FK - Sarıyer	1:1
08.02.20	Sarıyer - Manisa FK	2:3
29.09.19	Manisa FK - Sarıyer	2:0

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