Match Info

Paulista A3 - Round 10

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Bento de Abreu (Sao Paulo)


	Marília		Desportivo Brasil

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.05	8.8
	1.3	4.3	9.78
	1.32	4.19	10.15	Watch
	1.3	4	11
	1.42	4.01	8.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.51)	4.11 ↑ (3.58)	9.69 ↑ (6.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marília
68.4%

Draw
22.2%

Desportivo Brasil
9.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

25.5%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.6%

24.3%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marília has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marília's performance.

Desportivo Brasil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marília than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desportivo Brasil than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Marília - Desportivo Brasil Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, ⚽,
32', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 14).

Marília is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Desportivo Brasil has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Marília is the undisputed favorite.

We predict that Marília will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Marília won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Marília won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marília AC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
25.02.26	Catanduva - Marília	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	União São João - Marília	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Marília - Portuguesa Santista	3:0 ✺
11.02.26	Rio Preto - Marília	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Marília - União Barbarense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TWWTW
- Desportivo Brasil
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
25.02.26	Desportivo Brasil - União São João	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Rio Claro - Desportivo Brasil	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Desportivo Brasil - Rio Branco de Americana	1:1 ✺
11.02.26	Paulista - Desportivo Brasil	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Desportivo Brasil - Portuguesa Santista	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
29.01.25	Desportivo Brasil - Marília	1:2
28.02.24	Marília - Desportivo Brasil	3:0

Marília - Desportivo Brasil: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide