Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 18

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Maranhão		Itabaiana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.00	2.90	3.50
	2.02	3.00	3.60
	2.08	3.05	3.87
	2.09	3.07	3.77
	2.05	2.90	3.80
	2.04	2.88	3.79	Watch
	2.02	2.90	3.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (2)	2.96 ↓ (3)	3.7 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maranhão
44.6%

Draw
30.8%

Itabaiana
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

30%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

29.5%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maranhão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Itabaiana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maranhão than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

The ML Model estimate for Itabaiana aligns with the current prediction.

Maranhão - Itabaiana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jean (G) 16. Andre Radija 29. Felipe Cruz 10. Jorge Rocha 13. Lucao 11. Pimentinha 15. Rosivan 14. Tiburcio 20. Vagalume 8. Vander 17. Will	1. Jefferson (G) 9. Cleiton 8. Dyego 19. Everton Kanela 4. Gustavo Cintra 5. Gustavo Crecci 3. Gustavo Fagundes 6. Julio Henrique 7. Leilson 2. Ricardo Cerqueira 10. Rodrigo Alves
Substitutes
3. Edson Fernando 9. Erverson 4. Iran 6. Lucas Santos 25. Mauricio 27. Peu C. 19. Rafael Teixeira 5. Railson 21. Richarles 22. Ronald Makalysten 12. Vitao	22. Andrade L. F. 13. Betao 16. Dudu 18. Elimar 12. Geaze (G) 15. Isaque 11. Renatinho 20. Valdenilson 17. Vitinho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Jorge Rocha ⚽,
12', 2 - 0, Lucao ⚽,
25', 3 - 0, Felipe Cruz ⚽,
35', 3 - 1, Julio Henrique ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Cleiton ↓, Isaque ↑,
46', Leilson ↓, Renatinho ↑,
52', 4 - 1, Rosivan ⚽,
59', Everton Kanela ↓, Andrade L. F. ↑,
61', Ricardo Cerqueira ↓, Elimar ↑,
68', Gustavo Crecci 🟨,
69', Jorge Rocha ↓, Richarles ↑,
69', Pimentinha ↓, Ronald Makalysten ↑,
73', Andrade L. F. 🟨,
77', 🟨,
84', 🟨,
88', 🟨,
89', Lucao ↓, Lucas Santos ↑,
89', Rosivan ↓, Edson Fernando ↑,
89', Andre Radija ↓, Peu C. ↑,
90+6', Rodrigo Alves (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 13 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D).

Maranhão is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Itabaiana has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Maranhão may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Maranhão could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Maranhão won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maranhão AC
Brazilian Serie C
15.08.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Maranhão	0:1 ✺
09.08.26	Maranhão - Brusque	2:1 ✺
25.07.26	Ferroviária - Maranhão	0:0 ✺
12.07.26	Maranhão - Ypiranga	2:1 ✺
04.07.26	Maranhão - Internacional de Limeira	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 WWTWL
- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Serie C
16.08.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
09.08.26	Itabaiana - Caxias	0:2 ✺
25.07.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
13.07.26	Itabaiana - Brusque	1:0 ✺
06.07.26	Amazonas - Itabaiana	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
21.03.24	Itabaiana - Maranhão	3:4

Maranhão - Itabaiana: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide