Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 16

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Maranhão		Brusque

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	2.85	3.00
	2.45	2.90	3.05	Watch
	2.35	2.76	3.71
	2.6	2.58	3.35
	2.30	2.55	3.65
	2.26	3.03	3.37	Watch
	2.23	2.85	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.28)	2.79 ↓ (3)	3.33 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maranhão
39.2%

Draw
33%

Brusque
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

30.7%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

30.8%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maranhão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Brusque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maranhão than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (+1%)

Maranhão - Brusque Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jean (G) 16. Andre Radija (C) 9. Erverson 10. Jorge Rocha 13. Lucao 26. Luis Gustavo 11. Pimentinha 15. Rosivan 14. Tiburcio 8. Vander 17. Will	1. Matheus Nogueira (C) 17. Adrianinho 15. Alex Paulino 7. Gazao 10. Joao Pedro 2. Leonardo Ataide 9. Marlyson 11. Petterson Novaes 4. Rafael Milhorim 6. Raimar 3. Ryan Santos
Substitutes
3. Edson Fernando 29. Felipe Cruz 4. Iran 7. Kessinho 6. Lucas Santos 25. Mauricio 27. Peu C. 19. Rafael Teixeira 5. Railson 21. Richarles 22. Ronald Makalysten 12. Vitao	18. Alvaro 20. Ariel 22. Clinton 14. Coxa 16. Davi Gabriel 8. Jonatan Lucca 24. Leonardo 19. Macario 12. Paulo Gianezini (G) 13. Pedro Medeiros 21. Renan
Coaches
Testoni J.	Higo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', Alex Paulino 🟨,
22', 1 - 0, Andre Radija (Penalty Awarded),
38', 1 - 1, Joao Pedro ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Erverson ↓, Felipe Cruz ↑,
47', 2 - 1, Tiburcio ⚽,
66', Alex Paulino ↓, Davi Gabriel ↑,
66', Raimar ↓, Ariel ↑,
68', Pimentinha ↓, Mauricio ↑,
68', Luis Gustavo ↓, Richarles ↑,
72', Petterson Novaes ↓, Pedro Medeiros ↑,
72', Leonardo Ataide ↓, Renan ↑,
74', Jorge Rocha ↓, Ronald Makalysten ↑,
77', Ronald Makalysten 🟨,
82', Joao Pedro ↓, Clinton ↑,
86', Will ↓, Rafael Teixeira ↑,
87', Rafael Milhorim 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Brusque may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Brusque: 10.48%

Last Results with these Odds

Maranhão - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.44%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maranhão AC
Brazilian Serie C
25.07.26	Ferroviária - Maranhão	0:0 ✺
12.07.26	Maranhão - Ypiranga	2:1 ✺
04.07.26	Maranhão - Internacional de Limeira	0:1 ✺
28.06.26	Ituano - Maranhão	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Maranhão - Paysandu	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TWLTL
- Brusque FC
Brazilian Serie C
26.07.26	Brusque - Ituano	1:0 ✺
13.07.26	Itabaiana - Brusque	1:0 ✺
06.07.26	Brusque - Figueirense	3:1 ✺
30.06.26	Botafogo PB - Brusque	2:0 ✺
21.06.26	Brusque - Floresta	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWLW

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