Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 17

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz (Itajaí) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Usa	17:30	SportsEngine Play


	Barra Santa Catarina		Itabaiana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.83	2.87	4.33
	1.95	2.95	3.90	Watch
	1.84	2.99	4.99
	1.86	3.03	4.95	Watch
	1.82	2.95	4.90
	1.82	2.91	4.82	Watch
	1.84	2.85	4.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.86)	2.94 ↓ (3.1)	4.63 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barra Santa Catarina
49.2%

Draw
31.1%

Itabaiana
19.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.7%

29.2%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

30.9%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barra Santa Catarina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Itabaiana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barra Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Barra Santa Catarina - Itabaiana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabian Volpi (G) 6. Adriel 2. Augusto Potiguar 7. Cleo Silva 4. Everton Alemao 10. Marquinho 5. Pedro Pecanha 9. Renan Bernabe 11. Saymon 3. Vava Franca (C) 8. Warley Jr	1. Jefferson (G) 9. Cleiton 17. Fabricio Oya 5. Gustavo Crecci (C) 3. Gustavo Fagundes 7. Leilson 4. Ligger 11. Renatinho 2. Ricardo Cerqueira 10. Rodrigo Alves 6. Tito
Substitutes
18. Betinho 13. Da Rocha 20. Gabriel Silva 14. Joao Vinicius 17. Krystian 23. Lucas Vargas 21. Marcelinho 12. Matheus Kayser (G) 19. Matheuzinho 15. Natan Costa 16. Tete 24. Vinicius Popo	16. Dudu 8. Dyego 18. Elimar 19. Everton Kanela 12. Geaze (G) 14. Gustavo Cintra 15. Isaque 23. Julio Henrique 21. Luan Silva 13. Lucao 20. Valdenilson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 0, Vava Franca ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 17).

Barra is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Itabaiana is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Barra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Barra has had a series of away games.

Barra will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barra Santa Catarina
Brazilian Serie C
08.08.26	Ituano - Barra Santa Catarina	2:0 ✺
26.07.26	Ypiranga - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2 ✺
04.07.26	Confiança - Barra Santa Catarina	1:2 ✺
27.06.26	Floresta - Barra Santa Catarina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLLWL
- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Serie C
09.08.26	Itabaiana - Caxias	0:2 ✺
25.07.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
13.07.26	Itabaiana - Brusque	1:0 ✺
06.07.26	Amazonas - Itabaiana	0:2 ✺
27.06.26	Itabaiana - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 LTWWW

Barra Santa Catarina - Itabaiana