Match Info

Serie D - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 2 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)


	Maranhão		Tuna Luso Brasileira

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.95	3.4
	2.18	2.7	3.4
	2.21	2.72	3.78
	2.19	3.02	3.40	Watch
	2.21	2.95	3.59
	2.11	3.1	2.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.25)	2.91 ↓ (3)	3.41 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maranhão
42.1%

Draw
31.3%

Tuna Luso Brasileira
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

30.3%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

29.6%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maranhão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Tuna Luso Brasileira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maranhão than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tuna Luso Brasileira than the current prediction. (+2%)

Maranhão - Tuna Luso Brasileira Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Clessione ⚽,
25', 2 - 0, Ryan ⚽,
31', 3 - 0, Rafael ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
65', 4 - 0, Clessione ⚽,
81', 4 - 1, Ronaldy ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Maranhão is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tuna Luso's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Maranhão will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Maranhão won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Maranhão won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maranhão AC
Brazilian Serie D
26.07.25	Altos - Maranhão	0:1 ✺
19.07.25	Maranhão - Maracanã	3:0 ✺
12.07.25	Imperatriz de Desportos - Maranhão	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	Tocantinópolis - Maranhão	1:1 ✺
28.06.25	Maranhão - Sampaio Corrêa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWLTW
- Tuna Luso Brasileira
Brazilian Serie D
27.07.25	Tuna Luso Brasileira - Humaitá	2:0 ✺
19.07.25	Trem - Tuna Luso Brasileira	2:1 ✺
13.07.25	Tuna Luso Brasileira - Manauara	2:1 ✺
06.07.25	Manaus - Tuna Luso Brasileira	2:1 ✺
29.06.25	Tuna Luso Brasileira - Águia de Marabá	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
06.08.23	Tuna Luso Brasileira - Maranhão	0:2 penalties
29.07.23	Maranhão - Tuna Luso Brasileira	2:3

Maranhão - Tuna Luso Brasileira: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide