Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 18 - Round 29

Date: 2 April 2026, Thursday


	Marchamalo		Calvo Sotelo Puertollano

	1	X	2
	3.65	2.92	2.02
	3.75	3.1	2.02
	3.7	3.12	2.01
	3.7	2.88	2.05
	3.71	3.04	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.7 ↑ (3.66)	3.01 ↓ (3.1)	2.02 (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marchamalo
24.6%

Draw
30.2%

Calvo Sotelo Puertollano
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

29.6%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.9%

28.4%

47.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marchamalo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Calvo Sotelo Puertollano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marchamalo than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Calvo Sotelo Puertollano than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Marchamalo - Calvo Sotelo Puertollano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marchamalo won 0.

In recent matches, Marchamalo has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Calvo Sotelo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Calvo Sotelo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Calvo Sotelo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Marchamalo won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:17. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Marchamalo won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Marchamalo	5	2	2	1	10:7	3	8

Last Results with these Odds

Calvo Sotelo Puertollano - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 45.38%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Marchamalo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 18
21.03.26	Marchamalo - Villacañas	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Illescas - Marchamalo	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Marchamalo - Manchego	2:2 ✺
01.03.26	Villarrobledo - Marchamalo	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Marchamalo - Albacete B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLTLW
- Calvo Sotelo Puertollano
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 18
28.03.26	Calvo Sotelo Puertollano - Azuqueca	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Villarrubia - Calvo Sotelo Puertollano	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Calvo Sotelo Puertollano - Tarancón	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Pedroñeras - Calvo Sotelo Puertollano	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Calvo Sotelo Puertollano - Sonseca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 18
23.11.25	Calvo Sotelo Puertollano - Marchamalo	2:0
26.01.25	Calvo Sotelo Puertollano - Marchamalo	3:3
15.09.24	Marchamalo - Calvo Sotelo Puertollano	1:1
07.04.24	Calvo Sotelo Puertollano - Marchamalo	4:0
19.11.23	Marchamalo - Calvo Sotelo Puertollano	1:1
12.03.23	Marchamalo - Calvo Sotelo Puertollano	1:1
06.11.22	Calvo Sotelo Puertollano - Marchamalo	4:0

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