Match Info

SPAIN: TERCERA RFEF - GROUP 18 - ROUND 6

Date: 15 October 2023, Sunday


	Marchamalo		Conquense

	1	X	2
	3	2.85	2.3
	3.08	2.74	2.38
	3.1	2.94	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↓ (4.43)	2.84 ↓ (3.5)	2.32 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 10.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marchamalo
29.5%

Draw
31.7%

Conquense
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.5%

25.9%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

25.4%

54.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marchamalo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marchamalo's performance.

Conquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Conquense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marchamalo than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marchamalo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Conquense than the current prediction. (+15.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Conquense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 18 (Play Offs: )).

Marchamalo has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Conquense is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Marchamalo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Marchamalo have a series of guest games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Marchamalo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Marchamalo won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Marchamalo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 18
08.10.23	Deportivo Toledo - Marchamalo	4:0 ✺
23.09.23	Villarrubia - Marchamalo	1:0 ✺
17.09.23	Marchamalo - Villarrobledo	0:1 ✺
09.09.23	Azuqueca - Marchamalo	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.09.23	Leganés B - Marchamalo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLLT
- UB Conquense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 18
07.10.23	Conquense - Huracán Balazote	2:0 ✺
01.10.23	Conquense - Villacañas	1:1 ✺
24.09.23	Deportivo Toledo - Conquense	0:1 ✺
16.09.23	Conquense - Cazalegas	4:1 ✺
09.09.23	Villarrubia - Conquense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 18
01.04.23	Conquense - Marchamalo	0:0
04.12.22	Marchamalo - Conquense	0:2
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
24.03.18	Marchamalo - Conquense	1:4

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