Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 8

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Municipal de Marco de Canaveses (Marco de Canaveses)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Marco 09		Fafe

	1	X	2
	2.62	3.2	2.4
	2.63	3.8	2.6
	2.46	3.63	2.56	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.45
	2.38	3.48	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (2.83)	3.44 ↑ (3.22)	2.5 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco 09
36.3%

Draw
26.8%

Fafe
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

28.5%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

28.9%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco 09 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Fafe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marco 09 than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Marco 09 - Fafe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Ze Couto (G) 2. Sousa B. 18. Martins D. 3. Pedro M. 33. Silva J. 5. Nandinho 27. Guimaraes B. 6. Pacheco F. 14. Doukoure H. 7. Pedro P. 9. Soares P.	71. Joao Goncalo (G) 78. Pinto G. 26. Batista J. 4. Teixeira L. 15. Breno 35. Cardoso F. 77. Carlos Daniel 8. Braga V. 95. Fonseca T. 10. Ka 7. Veiga T.
Substitutes
1. Almeida A. (G) 99. Carvalho D. (G) 10. Duarte D. 23. Garro L. 11. Mauro Ribeiro 21. Pedrosa C. 25. Pereira H. 95. Sousa V.	20. Amorim J. 85. Castro D. 19. Leal J. 22. Manu (G) 11. Picas 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 24. Sampaio T. 9. Santos J. 79. Teixeira T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Pinto G. 🟨,
39', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Martins D. ↓, Sousa V. ↑,
58', Braga V. ↓, Castro D. ↑,
58', Doukoure H. ↓, Duarte D. ↑,
62', Soares P. 🟨,
63', Ribeiro Oliveira J. 🟨,
70', Pedro P. 🟨,
71', Ka ↓, Leal J. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Garro L. ⚽, Pedro P. (A),
80', Carlos Daniel ↓, Teixeira T. ↑,
80', Fonseca T. ↓, Santos J. ↑,
84', Sousa B. ↓, Pereira H. ↑,
84', Pedro P. ↓, Pedrosa C. ↑,
90', Teixeira L. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Marco have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fafe is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Marco won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Marco won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Marco 09 - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 32.35%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Marco 09
Portuguese Liga 3
12.04.26	São João de Ver - Marco 09	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Marco 09 - Sanjoanense	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	Fafe - Marco 09	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Sanjoanense - Marco 09	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Marco 09 - São João de Ver	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TTTTW
- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
11.04.26	Sanjoanense - Fafe	2:3 ✺
22.03.26	Fafe - Paredes	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Fafe - Marco 09	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Paredes - Fafe	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	Fafe - Sanjoanense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.26	Fafe - Marco 09	1:1
07.12.25	Marco 09 - Fafe	1:1
24.08.25	Fafe - Marco 09	0:0

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