Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 7

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Municipal de Marco de Canaveses (Marco de Canaveses) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Portugal	11:00	Canal 11


	Marco 09		Fafe

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.00	2.40
	2.90	3.00	2.25
	2.76	3.05	2.73
	2.81	3.19	2.51	Watch
	2.70	3.00	2.65
	2.63	3.26	2.63
	2.60	3.05	2.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↓ (2.9)	3.08 ↑ (3.05)	2.51 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco 09
33.7%

Draw
29.8%

Fafe
36.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.9%

29.3%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

28.7%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco 09 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Fafe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marco 09 than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Marco 09 - Fafe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Ze Couto (G) 77. Barrett R. 4. Chicao 8. Erivaldo 18. Fernandes F. 10. Garro L. 17. Gata J. 82. Guerrero J. 9. Ka 14. Pedro P. 19. Ribeiro P.	1. Kudakovskiy P. (G) 24. Amaral J. 26. Batista J. 15. Breno 35. Cardoso F. (C) 10. Carvalho D. 90. Otumba P. 3. Pereira P. 7. Rafael Martins 2. Ribeiro O. 13. Veiga T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Erivaldo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gata J. ↓, Traore B. ↑,
59', Veiga T. ↓, Correia M. ↑,
59', Rafael Martins ↓, Picas ↑,
61', Fernandes F. ↓, Pacheco F. ↑,
68', Pedro P. 🟨,
70', Ribeiro P. ↓, Lucas Henrique ↑,
71', Amaral J. ↓, Mimito ↑,
73', Mimito 🟨,
74', Correia M. 🟨,
75', Otumba P. 🟨,
80', Garro L. ↓, Lobo G. ↑,
80', Otumba P. ↓, Carvalho D. ↑,
86', Lucas Henrique 🟨,

Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 5th in the Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Marco could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Marco has recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:2 (averaging 0.8:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Marco against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals (averaging 1:0.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Marco 09 - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 30.87%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Marco 09
Taça de Portugal
17.10.26	Farense - Marco 09	3:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
10.10.26	Leça - Marco 09	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.26	Marco 09 - Maia Lidador	1:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
12.09.26	Marco 09 - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	São João de Ver - Marco 09	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLWWT
- AD Fafe
Taça de Portugal
18.10.26	Felgueiras - Fafe	1:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
11.10.26	Fafe - Trofense	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.26	Fafe - Lajense	4:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
13.09.26	Paredes - Fafe	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Leça - Fafe	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
18.04.26	Marco 09 - Fafe	1:0
15.03.26	Fafe - Marco 09	1:1
07.12.25	Marco 09 - Fafe	1:1
24.08.25	Fafe - Marco 09	0:0

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