Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/32-finals

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos (Felgueiras) 🌤️ ...


	Felgueiras		Fafe

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.10	3.25
	2.05	3.10	3.30
	2.07	3.00	3.20
	2.18	3.09	3.73
	2.07	3.28	3.36
	2.15	3.05	3.35
	2.18	3.21	3.36
	2.14	3.20	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.46)	3.13 ↓ (3.2)	3.38 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Felgueiras
43.4%

Draw
29.4%

Fafe
27.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38%

29.2%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

29.8%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Felgueiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Felgueiras's performance.

Fafe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fafe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Felgueiras than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Felgueiras - Fafe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Felipe Scheibig (G) 16. Beni Jetour 17. Cruz F. . Duarie L. 77. Franca F. 23. Freitas A. 15. Lopes A. 70. Ouacharaf B. 3. Pinto J. 7. Rivas M. . Rodrigo	1. Kudakovskiy P. (G) 24. Amaral J. 88. Asamoah K. 26. Batista J. (C) 90. Otumba P. 11. Picas 7. Rafael Martins 2. Ribeiro O. 6. Sequeira 4. Teixeira L. 13. Veiga T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', 🟨,
28', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 🟨,
55', 🟨,
58', 🟨,
68', 🟨,
84', 🟨,
85', 1 - 0, Freitas A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Felgueiras won 4.

In recent outings, Felgueiras has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Fafe shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Felgueiras has recorded 8 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:9 (averaging 1.4:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Felgueiras against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 7:2 goals (averaging 1.8:0.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Felgueiras - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 38%, but this team recently wins 23% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Felgueiras
Portuguese Liga 2
12.10.26	Benfica B - Felgueiras	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.09.26	Naval - Felgueiras	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
12.09.26	Felgueiras - Penafiel	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Vizela - Felgueiras	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Felgueiras - Chaves	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLLW
- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
11.10.26	Fafe - Trofense	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.26	Fafe - Lajense	4:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
13.09.26	Paredes - Fafe	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Leça - Fafe	0:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
29.08.26	Paços de Ferreira - Fafe	0:1 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
05.01.24	Fafe - Felgueiras	0:3
16.09.23	Felgueiras - Fafe	1:0
Taça de Portugal
10.09.23	Fafe - Felgueiras	1:2 ET
Portuguese Liga 3
25.02.23	Fafe - Felgueiras	1:1
13.11.22	Felgueiras - Fafe	1:0
23.02.22	Fafe - Felgueiras	0:1
18.09.21	Felgueiras - Fafe	3:1

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