Match Info

ENGLAND: Isthmian League Premier Division - Round 40

Date: 13 April 2024, Saturday


	Margate		Hornchurch

	1	X	2
	4.6	4.4	1.49
	4.75	4.33	1.52
	4.08	5.11	1.56
	4.08	5.11	1.57
	5.64	4.21	1.5
	4.75	4.33	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.65 ↑ (2.86)	4.58 ↑ (4.08)	1.53 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Margate
19.8%

Draw
20.1%

Hornchurch
60.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

22.7%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

22.3%

45.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Margate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Margate's form might have worsened.

Hornchurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hornchurch's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Margate than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Margate, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (-14.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hornchurch, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', 0 - 1, Scannell S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Margate won 1.

Now both teams are in good shape.

Margate could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Hornchurch have a series of home games.

In this match Hornchurch is a favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Margate won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 22-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Margate won 1 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Margate
English Isthmian League Premier Division
11.04.24	Potters Bar Town - Margate	2:3 ✺
06.04.24	Kingstonian - Margate	1:3 ✺
01.04.24	Margate - Cray Wanderers	1:1 ✺
26.03.24	Cheshunt - Margate	0:1 ✺
23.03.24	Margate - Enfield Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.2 WWTWT
- AFC Hornchurch
English Isthmian League Premier Division
09.04.24	Hornchurch - Cray Wanderers	2:0 ✺
06.04.24	Hornchurch - Chatham Town	2:1 ✺
30.03.24	Hornchurch - Wingate & Finchley	1:2 ✺
26.03.24	Hornchurch - Concord Rangers	1:0 ✺
23.03.24	Whitehawk - Hornchurch	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English Isthmian League Premier Division
15.08.23	Hornchurch - Margate	4:1
25.03.23	Hornchurch - Margate	2:3
29.10.22	Margate - Hornchurch	1:3
15.01.22	Margate - Hornchurch	0:3
14.09.21	Hornchurch - Margate	2:1
29.09.20	Margate - Hornchurch	1:1
18.02.20	Margate - Hornchurch	2:2

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