Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 6

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio Willie Davids (Maringá) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	17:00	SportyNet, SportyNet+


	Maringá		Floresta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.44	3.75	6.50
	1.52	3.50	6.00	Watch
	1.46	3.86	8.21
	1.6	3.61	5.9	Watch
	1.43	3.70	8.10
	1.49	3.98	6.81	Watch
	1.46	3.80	6.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.66)	3.74 ↑ (3.2)	6.87 ↑ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maringá
62%

Draw
24.6%

Floresta
13.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.2%

28.1%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

27.1%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maringá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Maringá's performance.

Floresta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Maringá that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Maringá - Floresta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Neto (G) 8. Adeilson 99. Caique Calito 7. Edison Negueba 3. Gabriel Santos 18. Jhow Alecxander 28. Lucas Bonifacio 23. Paulinho 21. Ronald Camarao 30. Ronald Carvalho (C) 6. Thiago Rosa	12. Dheimison (C) 29. Caique 2. Cedric 23. Islan 5. Jhony Douglas 4. Joao Victor 17. Nonato 21. Rafa Marcos 11. Rafinha 20. Thalisson 16. Zulu
Substitutes
1. Affonso de Jesus G. (G) 11. Danielzinho 14. Felipe Cardoso 2. Gabriel Souza 9. Giovane Gomez 10. Guilherme Pira 17. Iago Santana 44. Jesiel 19. Julio Rodrigues 5. Kelvi Gomes 77. Rafinha 16. Rian Patric 37. Serginho	7. Baianinho 8. Danrley 6. Diego Matos 30. Eduardo 15. Eliandro 28. Guilherme Borges 1. Jeferson Souza (G) 10. Matheusinho 19. Matheus Lima 26. Thailor
Coaches
Campanari I.	Leston Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Nonato 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Rafinha ↓, Matheus Lima ↑,
56', 1 - 0, Ronald Camarao ⚽,
61', Matheus Lima 🟥,
72', Adeilson ↓, Serginho ↑,
72', Rafa Marcos ↓, Baianinho ↑,
72', Caique ↓, Diego Matos ↑,
74', 2 - 0, Paulinho ⚽,
78', Nonato ↓, Matheusinho ↑,
78', Thalisson ↓, Guilherme Borges ↑,
81', Jhow Alecxander ↓, Felipe Cardoso ↑,
81', Caique Calito ↓, Giovane Gomez ↑,
81', Paulinho ↓, Iago Santana ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Serie B and 3rd).

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Maringá carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Maringá has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:2 (averaging 1:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Maringá against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Last Results with these Odds

Floresta - the odds 5.1 are the expected chance of winning is 17.65%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maringá FC
Brazilian Serie C
03.10.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Maringá	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Botafogo PB - Maringá	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Maringá - Botafogo PB	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Maringá - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Floresta - Maringá	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TTWLW
- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
03.10.26	Floresta - Botafogo PB	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Floresta - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Floresta	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Botafogo PB - Floresta	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Floresta - Maringá	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
06.09.26	Floresta - Maringá	0:1
27.07.26	Floresta - Maringá	1:1
03.08.25	Maringá - Floresta	1:1

Maringá - Floresta