Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 6

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio Willie Davids (Maringá)


	Maringá		Guarani

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.02	3.15	3.35
	2.09	3.3	3.56
	2.04	3.28	3.65	Watch
	2	2.9	3.4
	2	3.16	3.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.3)	3.16 ↑ (3)	3.5 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Maringá
45%

Draw
28.9%

Guarani
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

31%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

31.5%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maringá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Guarani has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Maringá - Guarani Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Maringá will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Guarani will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Guarani (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Neto (G) 8. Adeilson 99. Caique Calito 32. Caua Tavares 11. Danielzinho 7. Edison Negueba 3. Gabriel Santos 18. Jhow Alecxander 5. Kelvi Gomes 28. Lucas Bonifacio 23. Paulinho (C)	1. Caique Franca (C) 15. Carlos Eduardo 21. Guilherme Cachoeira 11. Herbert 10. Joao Paulo 4. Jonathan Costa 19. Maranhao 13. Mauricio Antonio 8. Nathan Melo 6. Renan Castro 2. Yan Henrique
Substitutes
20. Bruno Cheron 14. Felipe Cardoso 2. Gabriel Souza 9. Giovane Gomez 17. Iago Santana 15. Neira N. 77. Rafinha 29. Rai Natalino 37. Rian Patric 12. Romario (G) 21. Ronald Camarao 26. Wallace	20. Diego Torres 7. Guilherme Parede 18. Isaque 16. Kaua Jesus 9. Lucca 12. Mateus Claus (G) 17. Mirandinha 5. Rafael Donato 23. Rafael Freitas 3. Raphael
Coaches
Moises Egert	Sizenando E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
2', 0 - 1, Guilherme Cachoeira ⚽,
10', 0 - 2, Maranhao ⚽,
13', Yan Henrique 🟨,
20', 0 - 3, Guilherme Cachoeira ⚽,
32', Caua Tavares ↓, Bruno Cheron ↑,
35', Adeilson 🟨,
40', Nathan Melo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Adeilson ↓, Rai Natalino ↑,
56', 🟨,
58', Yan Henrique ↓, Raphael ↑,
58', Herbert ↓, Guilherme Parede ↑,
60', Jhow Alecxander ↓, Rafinha ↑,
64', Rai Natalino 🟨,
66', Paulinho 🟨,
66', 0 - 4, Jonathan Costa ⚽,
68', Caique Calito ↓, Felipe Cardoso ↑,
68', Lucas Bonifacio ↓, Giovane Gomez ↑,
68', Maranhao ↓, Mirandinha ↑,
70', 🟨,
81', 0 - 5, Joao Paulo ⚽,
82', Guilherme Cachoeira ↓, Kaua Jesus ↑,
84', Raphael 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+1', Paulinho 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 9)

Maringá has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Guarani is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Maringá may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Maringá could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Maringá won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Maringa FC: 6.99%

Last Results with these Odds

Guarani - the odds 3.24 are the expected chance of winning is 28.66%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maringá FC
Brazilian Serie C
03.05.26	Maringá - Itabaiana	4:2 ✺
26.04.26	Ituano - Maringá	4:1 ✺
20.04.26	Maringá - Brusque	2:3 ✺
13.04.26	Figueirense - Maringá	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	Maringá - Ferroviária	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLLWW
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie C
02.05.26	Guarani - Santa Cruz Recife	1:0 ✺
27.04.26	Ferroviária - Guarani	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Guarani - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Guarani - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Maranhão - Guarani	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
13.04.25	Guarani - Maringá	2:3

Upcoming Matches