Match Info

Paranaense - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Café (Londrina)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Londrina		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.25	3.6
	2.02	3.05	3.8	Watch
	1.91	2.98	4.55
	2.29	2.96	3.39	Watch
	1.85	2.9	3.9
	1.89	2.89	4.41	Watch
	2	3.25	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (3.14)	3.04 ↑ (3)	3.9 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Londrina
46.3%

Draw
30.2%

Athletico Paranaense
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

30.2%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

29.1%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Londrina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Londrina's performance.

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletico Paranaense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (-18.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Londrina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+19%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletico Paranaense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Londrina - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Londrina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 5. Andre Luiz 9. Bruno Santos 11. Iago Teles 33. Kevyn 8. Lucas Marques 6. Mauricio Junior 18. Paulinho Moccelin 7. Vitinho 4. Wallace 3. Yago Lincoln	1. Mycael (G) 4. Aguirre F. 11. Bruninho 7. Chiqueti 6. Claudinho 5. Diogo Riquelme 10. Dudu Kogitzki (C) 2. Gilberto Junior 16. Jadson 3. Leo 9. Renan Viana
Substitutes
53. Chumbinho 20. Fabiano 21. Fabricio 15. Gabriel Lacerda 70. Gilberto 34. Heron 19. Joao Pedro 32. Joao Tavares 1. Luan Ribeiro (G) 55. Rafael Monteiro 29. Vitor Jacare 12. Zanella (G)	15. Belezi 22. Gonzalo Mastriani 14. Habraao 20. Joao Cruz 21. Leozinho 25. Lucas Amorim 8. Marezi L. 12. Mateus Soares (G) 17. Raul 19. Sorriso 18. Stabelini K. 13. Vitinho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', 1 - 0, Andre Luiz ⚽,
14', Renan Viana ↓, Lucas Amorim ↑,
16', 1 - 1, Chiqueti ⚽,
22', 1 - 2, Chiqueti ⚽,
43', Diogo Riquelme 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Jadson ↓, Raul ↑,
55', Yago Lincoln 🟨,
62', Gilberto Junior 🟨,
67', Iago Teles (Penalty Awarded),
67', Vitinho ↓, Vitor Jacare ↑,
67', Paulinho Moccelin ↓, Gilberto ↑,
70', Lucas Amorim ↓, Leozinho ↑,
73', 2 - 2, Lucas Marques ⚽,
80', Bruninho ↓, Sorriso ↑,
80', Dudu Kogitzki ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
85', Aguirre F. 🟨,
89', Bruno Santos ↓, Joao Tavares ↑,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Londrina won 1.

Londrina is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Athletico PR is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Londrina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Londrina won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 17:34. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Londrina won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Londrina EC
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
07.02.26	Londrina - São-Joseense	2:1 penalties ✺
01.02.26	São-Joseense - Londrina	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Londrina - Cianorte	0:0 ✺
20.01.26	Andraus - Londrina	1:6 ✺
17.01.26	Londrina - Galo Maringá	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WTTWW
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
07.02.26	Foz do Iguaçu - Athletico Paranaense	1:3 ✺
03.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Foz do Iguaçu	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Internacional RS - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
24.01.26	Athletico Paranaense - Galo Maringá	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
15.02.25	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	0:1
10.03.24	Athletico Paranaense - Londrina	6:0
02.03.24	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
10.02.24	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	1:2
26.02.23	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	0:1
20.03.22	Athletico Paranaense - Londrina	3:1 penalties
13.03.22	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	1:0

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