Match Info

Paulista A3 - Round 11

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Bento de Abreu (Sao Paulo)


	Marília		Rio Claro

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.25	4.95
	1.63	3.31	5.25
	1.64	3.38	5.3
	1.7	3	5
	1.62	3.32	5.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.91)	3.25 ↑ (3.21)	5.19 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marília
54.8%

Draw
27.8%

Rio Claro
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

28.2%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

27.3%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marília has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marília's performance.

Rio Claro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rio Claro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marília than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marília that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Claro than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rio Claro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Marília - Rio Claro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Cirilo ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', 1 - 1, Lucas Cassiano (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Marília may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Marília is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Marília won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Including home match between the teams, Marília won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marília AC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
28.02.26	Marília - Desportivo Brasil	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Catanduva - Marília	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	União São João - Marília	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Marília - Portuguesa Santista	3:0 ✺
11.02.26	Rio Preto - Marília	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WTWWT
- Rio Claro
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
01.03.26	Rio Claro - EC São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
26.02.26	Itapirense - Rio Claro	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Rio Claro - Desportivo Brasil	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Rio Claro - Rio Preto	2:1 ✺
11.02.26	Portuguesa Santista - Rio Claro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
04.02.15	Marília - Rio Claro	1:2

Marília - Rio Claro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide