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Marítimo vs Leixões Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Friday, May 01, 2026)

Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 32

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio do Marítimo (Funchal)

Referee: Guelho S. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Portugal	Sport TV1


	Marítimo		Leixões

	1	X	2
	2.1	3	3.25
	1.82	3.3	3.7
	2.08	3.2	3.45
	2.12	3.34	3.79
	1.97	3.5	3.69
	2.05	3	3.4
	2.13	3.14	3.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.86)	3.21 ↓ (3.42)	3.55 ↓ (3.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marítimo
45.3%

Draw
28.7%

Leixões
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

27%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

26.7%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marítimo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Leixões has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Marítimo will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Leixões will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Leixões (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leixões (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Samu (G) 17. Xavi Grande 5. Madsen N. 44. Correia R. (C) 23. Henrique P. 98. Ibrahima 14. Raphael Guzzo 20. Gomes Aguiar F. T. 28. Carlos Daniel 21. Bouzaidi S. 3. Butzke A.	51. Stefanovic I. (C) 77. Paulinho 14. Matheus Costa 3. Figueiredo L. 30. Serif N. 66. Balde A. 20. Miguel Sousa 22. Araujo C. 11. Agra S. 35. Rochez B. 33. Luccas Paraizo
Substitutes
6. Andrade R. 90. Borukov P. 8. Cruz M. 18. Danilovic V. 24. Da Rocha Borges R. 25. Freitas A. 9. Melro J. 1. Pastor A. (G) 7. Pena Zauner E.	13. Evrard Zag 2. Fonseca F. 18. Kanuric B. 1. Morro M. (G) 10. Paulite 44. Semeu 15. Simaozinho 91. Valente R. 7. Werton
Coaches
Moita M.	Fangueiro C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Gomes Aguiar F. T. ⚽, Carlos Daniel (A),
18', 1 - 1, Luccas Paraizo ⚽, Serif N. (A),
23', 2 - 1, Serif N. (Own goal),
28', Balde A. 🟨,
31', Paulinho 🟨,
33', Figueiredo L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Paulinho ↓, Fonseca F. ↑,
50', 3 - 1, Ibrahima ⚽,
62', Rochez B. ↓, Werton ↑,
63', Figueiredo L. ↓, Semeu ↑,
64', Ibrahima ↓, Danilovic V. ↑,
70', Gomes Aguiar F. T. ↓, Pena Zauner E. ↑,
70', Raphael Guzzo ↓, Da Rocha Borges R. ↑,
71', Xavi Grande ↓, Andrade R. ↑,
72', Serif N. 🟨,
77', Miguel Sousa ↓, Kanuric B. ↑,
78', Butzke A. ↓, Melro J. ↑,
79', Agra S. ↓, Paulite ↑,
81', Carlos Daniel 🟨,
82', 3 - 2, Kanuric B. ⚽,
87', Andrade R. 🟨,
90+1', Fonseca F. 🟨,
90+5', Correia R. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marítimo won 2.

Marítimo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leixões is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Marítimo is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Marítimo won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Marítimo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

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Last Results with these Odds

Marítimo - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 49.75%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Leixões - the odds 3.98 are the expected chance of winning is 23.23%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Marítimo
Portuguese Liga 2
26.04.26	Benfica B - Marítimo	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Torreense - Marítimo	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Marítimo - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Paços de Ferreira - Marítimo	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Marítimo - Oliveirense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLWTW
- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
25.04.26	Leixões - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
20.04.26	Porto B - Leixões	0:3 ✺
12.04.26	Leixões - Oliveirense	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Torreense - Leixões	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Leixões - Paços de Ferreira	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
21.12.25	Leixões - Marítimo	1:4
05.04.25	Marítimo - Leixões	1:1
10.11.24	Leixões - Marítimo	2:1
30.03.24	Marítimo - Leixões	0:0
12.11.23	Leixões - Marítimo	0:1
Club Friendly
26.07.22	Marítimo - Leixões	2:1
Portuguese League Cup
03.08.19	Leixões - Marítimo	1:2

Marítimo - Leixões: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide