Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 29

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Mar (Matosinhos)

Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2


	Leixões		Oliveirense

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.75	4.5
	1.75	3.6	4.35
	1.79	3.8	4.59
	1.74	3.87	4.36	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4
	1.76	3.64	4.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.89)	3.68 ↑ (3.57)	4.36 ↑ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leixões
53.2%

Draw
25.4%

Oliveirense
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

26.2%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

22.3%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leixões has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Oliveirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leixões that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oliveirense than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Oliveirense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Leixões - Oliveirense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Stefanovic I. (C) 3. Figueiredo L. 44. Semeu 14. Matheus Costa 77. Paulinho 22. Araujo C. 66. Balde A. 30. Serif N. 11. Agra S. 35. Rochez B. 9. Bica	31. Ribeiro R. (C) 2. Douglas Borel 4. Bura 75. Namora N. 19. Lopes A. 10. Bruno Silva 99. Sabino 21. Silva J. 7. Joao Adriano 17. Lucas Henrique 88. Rodriguez Y.
Substitutes
27. Barbosa R. 2. Fonseca F. 33. Luccas Paraizo 20. Miguel Sousa 1. Morro M. (G) 5. Naldo 28. Pina R. 91. Valente R. 7. Werton	26. Bastos L. 90. Brito T. 16. Diallo A. 40. Greis N. (G) 23. Gustavao 11. Joanderson 8. Ondoa F. 80. Onohara K. 13. Santos V.
Coaches
Fangueiro C.	Silva R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Serif N. ⚽, Araujo C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Joao Adriano ↓, Diallo A. ↑,
54', Rochez B. ↓, Luccas Paraizo ↑,
55', 2 - 0, Luccas Paraizo ⚽,
67', Bruno Silva ↓, Ondoa F. ↑,
67', Silva J. ↓, Joanderson ↑,
69', Semeu 🟥,
74', Bica ↓, Werton ↑,
74', Agra S. ↓, Pina R. ↑,
77', Araujo C. 🟨,
79', Lopes A. ↓, Bastos L. ↑,
79', Sabino ↓, Gustavao ↑,
80', Stefanovic I. 🟨,
90+3', Araujo C. ↓, Miguel Sousa ↑,
90+3', Serif N. ↓, Fonseca F. ↑,
90+9', Fonseca F. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leixões won 2.

Recent performances by Leixões have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Oliveirense's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Leixões may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Leixões is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Leixões won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 31:32. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Leixões won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:17. (average 1.6:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Leixoes	6	3	1	2	8:6	2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Oliveirense - the odds 3.82 are the expected chance of winning is 24.44%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
06.04.26	Torreense - Leixões	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Leixões - Paços de Ferreira	3:2 ✺
14.03.26	Académico de Viseu - Leixões	3:1 ✺
08.03.26	Leixões - Leiria	1:4 ✺
28.02.26	Sporting Lisbon B - Leixões	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TWLLW
- UD Oliveirense
Portuguese Liga 2
03.04.26	Oliveirense - Portimonense	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Marítimo - Oliveirense	1:0 ✺
16.03.26	Porto B - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Oliveirense - Torreense	0:3 ✺
01.03.26	Paços de Ferreira - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
29.11.25	Oliveirense - Leixões	2:0
08.02.25	Leixões - Oliveirense	1:2
31.08.24	Oliveirense - Leixões	0:1
19.05.24	Oliveirense - Leixões	1:3
12.01.24	Leixões - Oliveirense	0:2
28.05.23	Oliveirense - Leixões	4:3
21.01.23	Leixões - Oliveirense	1:2

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