Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Marítimo (Funchal)

Referee: Jesus F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV3


	Marítimo		Paços de Ferreira

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.4	5.25	Watch
	1.6	3.75	5.3
	1.65	3.78	5.75
	1.63	3.74	5.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.67)	3.67 ↓ (3.8)	5.38 ↑ (4.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marítimo
57.5%

Draw
25.3%

Paços de Ferreira
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

24.7%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

24.1%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Marítimo - Paços de Ferreira Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Marítimo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Samu (G) 17. Xavi Grande 5. Madsen N. 44. Correia R. (C) 23. Henrique P. 14. Raphael Guzzo 18. Danilovic V. 21. Bouzaidi S. 28. Carlos Daniel 10. Tejon M. 3. Butzke A.	12. Jeimes (G) 23. Ferreira T. (C) 77. Rafael 4. Kauan 22. Mota 33. Fernandinho 88. Francisco Ramos 5. Sousa A. 90. Lumungo R. 7. Diego Fernandes 30. Costinha
Substitutes
8. Cruz M. 24. Da Rocha Borges R. 9. Elis A. 20. Gomes Aguiar F. T. 98. Ibrahima 2. Igor Juliao 4. Santos Junior E. A. 79. Tavares M. 66. Zavala K. (G)	21. Anilson 2. Cardoso G. 26. Cunha N. 3. Diegao 19. Gomes F. 28. Marafona (G) 10. Matheus Martins 13. Pinto J. 9. Victor J.
Coaches
Emanuel Soares Matos V.	Candido F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Carlos Daniel ⚽,
31', Kauan 🟨,
35', Rafael 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Butzke A. ⚽, Bouzaidi S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kauan ↓, Pinto J. ↑,
57', Correia R. 🟨,
61', Fernandinho ↓, Cunha N. ↑,
61', Diego Fernandes ↓, Victor J. ↑,
65', Butzke A. ↓, Tavares M. ↑,
68', Mota ↓, Anilson ↑,
78', Bouzaidi S. ↓, Igor Juliao ↑,
78', Carlos Daniel ↓, Cruz M. ↑,
78', Lumungo R. ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
85', Danilovic V. ↓, Elis A. ↑,
85', Xavi Grande ↓, Ibrahima ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marítimo won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Marítimo is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Marítimo won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:19. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Marítimo won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:11. (average 1.7:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Marítimo
Portuguese Liga 2
03.11.25	Oliveirense - Marítimo	0:2 ✺
30.10.25	Marítimo - Leiria	1:3 ✺
19.10.25	Porto B - Marítimo	1:0 ✺
03.10.25	Marítimo - Académico de Viseu	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Marítimo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLLTW
- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
03.11.25	Paços de Ferreira - Leixões	3:1 ✺
30.10.25	Benfica B - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Paços de Ferreira - Portimonense	4:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Paços de Ferreira - Sporting Lisbon	2:3 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
05.10.25	Oliveirense - Paços de Ferreira	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
25.01.25	Marítimo - Paços de Ferreira	2:2
18.08.24	Paços de Ferreira - Marítimo	1:2
11.02.24	Paços de Ferreira - Marítimo	1:2
02.09.23	Marítimo - Paços de Ferreira	2:0
Liga Portugal
15.04.23	Marítimo - Paços de Ferreira	3:1
28.10.22	Paços de Ferreira - Marítimo	0:1
09.04.22	Paços de Ferreira - Marítimo	2:0

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