Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 9

Date: 30 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Estádio do Marítimo (Funchal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Marítimo		Leiria

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.5	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.35
	2.14	3.24	3.36	Watch
	2.14	3.2	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.4)	3.22 ↓ (3.25)	3.38 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marítimo
43.8%

Draw
28.8%

Leiria
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

28.7%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

29.1%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Leiria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	11.1%	33.3%

Marítimo - Leiria Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Marítimo will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Leiria will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marítimo: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Marítimo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Samu (G) 17. Xavi Grande 44. Correia R. (C) 5. Madsen N. 23. Henrique P. 10. Tejon M. 14. Raphael Guzzo 18. Danilovic V. 28. Carlos Daniel 21. Bouzaidi S. 3. Butzke A.	98. Joao Bravim (G) 68. Maga 16. Ze Pedro 5. Rofino V. G. 21. Pires M. 11. Jair da Silva 18. Lottin A. 20. Gomes B. 10. van der Gaag J. 9. Munoz J. (C) 19. Fernandez P.
Substitutes
8. Cruz M. 24. Da Rocha Borges R. 20. Gomes Aguiar F. T. 98. Ibrahima 2. Igor Juliao 7. Pena Zauner E. 4. Santos Junior E. A. 1. Tabuaco G. (G) 79. Tavares M.	3. Baro M. 1. Carrasco S. (G) 41. Daniel Borges 17. Lucho Vega 86. Michel D. 72. Oliveira V. 6. Rodriguez G. 78. Santos J. 52. Sylla H.
Coaches
Emanuel Soares Matos V.	Pereira F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Bouzaidi S. ⚽, Xavi Grande (A),
28', Gomes B. 🟨,
39', Jair da Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Gomes B. ↓, Daniel Borges ↑,
46', Lottin A. ↓, Baro M. ↑,
51', Bouzaidi S. 🟨,
52', Baro M. 🟨,
65', Carlos Daniel ↓, Cruz M. ↑,
66', Xavi Grande ↓, Igor Juliao ↑,
66', Raphael Guzzo 🟨,
72', 1 - 1, Daniel Borges ⚽, Jair da Silva (A),
75', Raphael Guzzo ↓, Gomes Aguiar F. T. ↑,
76', 1 - 2, Munoz J. ⚽, van der Gaag J. (A),
78', Tejon M. ↓, Pena Zauner E. ↑,
79', Danilovic V. 🟨,
83', Munoz J. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
88', 1 - 3, Maga ⚽, van der Gaag J. (A),
90+2', Maga ↓, Sylla H. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marítimo won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Marítimo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Marítimo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Marítimo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Marítimo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Marítimo
Portuguese Liga 2
19.10.25	Porto B - Marítimo	1:0 ✺
03.10.25	Marítimo - Académico de Viseu	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Marítimo	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Belenenses - Marítimo	2:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
14.09.25	Marítimo - Vizela	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LTWLT
- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
25.10.25	Leiria - Leixões	1:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Leiria - Alverca	3:2 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
11.10.25	Leiria - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Portimonense - Leiria	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Sacavenense - Leiria	2:4 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
22.02.25	Marítimo - Leiria	1:2
29.09.24	Leiria - Marítimo	1:1
16.03.24	Marítimo - Leiria	2:0
Taça de Portugal
10.01.24	Marítimo - Leiria	0:3
Portuguese Liga 2
05.11.23	Leiria - Marítimo	4:3
Liga Portugal
24.02.12	Marítimo - Leiria	1:0

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