Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 40

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday


	Matlock Town		Worksop Town

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.75	1.95
	2.6	3.9	2.19
	2.63	4.05	2.25
	2.65	3.93	2.31	Watch
	3.1	3.5	2
	2.66	3.45	2.48
	2.6	3.9	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↓ (4.49)	3.78 ↓ (4.26)	2.2 ↑ (1.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matlock Town
33.7%

Draw
24.4%

Worksop Town
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.3%

21.4%

58.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.5%

20.6%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matlock Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matlock Town's performance.

Worksop Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Worksop Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matlock Town than the current prediction. (-14.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matlock Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Worksop Town than the current prediction. (+18.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Worksop Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Matlock Town - Worksop Town Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Matlock (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Matlock (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Matlock (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
26', 0 - 1, Starcenko A. ⚽,
40', 0 - 2, Hughes L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+5', 1 - 2, Gibson M. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: )).

Worksop is Qualified for NPL Premier Division (Play Offs )

Last 5 head-to-head matches Matlock won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Worksop will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Matlock won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8:21 (average 1:2.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Matlock won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:5 (average 0.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matlock Town
English NPL Premier Division
12.04.25	Hyde United - Matlock Town	0:4 ✺
05.04.25	Matlock Town - Morpeth Town	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Guiseley - Matlock Town	1:1 ✺
22.03.25	Matlock Town - Blyth Spartans	2:0 ✺
15.03.25	Bamber Bridge - Matlock Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WLTWL
- Worksop Town
English NPL Premier Division
12.04.25	Worksop Town - Bamber Bridge	0:1 ✺
05.04.25	Stockton Town - Worksop Town	3:0 ✺
29.03.25	Worksop Town - Lancaster City	4:1 ✺
22.03.25	Warrington Rylands - Worksop Town	0:3 ✺
15.03.25	Worksop Town - Hyde United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
20.08.24	Worksop Town - Matlock Town	8:0
17.02.24	Matlock Town - Worksop Town	0:0
26.09.23	Worksop Town - Matlock Town	2:0
Club Friendly
28.07.16	Worksop Town - Matlock Town	2:4
English NPL Premier Division
01.01.14	Matlock Town - Worksop Town	1:0
26.08.13	Worksop Town - Matlock Town	4:2
02.05.13	Matlock Town - Worksop Town	1:5

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