Match Info

UGANDA: Premier League - Round 15

Date: 7 January 2025, Tuesday

Location: Mbale Municipal Stadium (Mbale)


	Mbale Heroes		NEC FC

	1	X	2
	8.2	4	1.37
	8.32	4.02	1.39	Watch
	7.5	3.6	1.4
	8.65	4.2	1.34
	8.2	4	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.17 ↑ (5.21)	3.96 ↑ (3.39)	1.37 ↓ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mbale Heroes
11.1%

Draw
22.9%

NEC FC
66%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.5%

26.8%

55.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17%

26.1%

57.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mbale Heroes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mbale Heroes's form might have worsened.

NEC FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting NEC FC's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mbale Heroes than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mbale Heroes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NEC FC than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for NEC FC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Mbale Heroes - NEC FC Predictions

Users Predictions: NEC FC will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Oyo D. (G) 8. Bashir O. 25. Bironse A. 12. Kakeeto D. 4. Kasozi S. 26. Katumba E. 17. Kawooya A. 22. Kyebatala U. 7. Ofoyrwoth I. 18. Olega C. 15. Ssekajja D.	19. Sebwalunyo H. (C) 7. Ajo E. 23. Bayiga P. 4. Geriga A. 13. Kimwero S. 14. Mucureezi P. 18. Mutyaba M. 17. Odongo G. 2. Okao J. 9. Rwothomio C. 24. Ssebagala E.
Substitutes
30. Adima H. 2. Etou G. 5. Malunda M. 23. Matata J. 11. Musabbah H. 9. Muzanyi H. 14. Ndifuna B.	11. Jarieko J. 8. Kavuma M. 15. Kawawulo I. 1. Kiirya S. (G) 6. Kiyemba I. 73. Kulanga E. . Mugalu A. 12. Niwamanya D. 22. Ochan B. (G) 21. Okocha R. 3. Tah Barni K. . Wahab G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Ssebagala E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Ofoyrwoth I. ↓, Adima H. ↑,
60', Bashir O. ↓, Matata J. ↑,
62', Mutyaba M. ↓, Okocha R. ↑,
62', Ajo E. ↓, Mugalu A. ↑,
71', Kimwero S. 🟨,
76', Bayiga P. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Big League and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification: )).

Mbale Heroes is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

NEC is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Mbale Heroes could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match NEC is absolute favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mbale Heroes
Ugandan Super League
02.01.25	Maroons - Mbale Heroes	1:0 ✺
20.12.24	Mbale Heroes - Vipers	0:4 ✺
11.12.24	UPDF - Mbale Heroes	1:1 ✺
06.12.24	Kitara - Mbale Heroes	6:0 ✺
28.11.24	Mbale Heroes - Bright Stars	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLTLW
- NEC FC
Ugandan Super League
04.01.25	NEC FC - Mbarara City	1:0 ✺
18.12.24	Bul - NEC FC	1:1 ✺
11.12.24	NEC FC - Bright Stars	1:0 ✺
05.12.24	Uganda Revenue Authority SC - NEC FC	1:1 ✺
29.11.24	NEC FC - Villa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WTWTW

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