Match Info

Premier League - Round 29

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: MTN Omondi Stadium (Bugoloobi)


	NEC FC		Villa

	1	X	2
	2.66	2.97	2.6
	2.77	2.69	2.77	Watch
	2.75	2.5	2.7
	2.64	2.85	2.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.49)	2.75 ↑ (2.57)	2.67 ↓ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NEC FC
33.4%

Draw
32.8%

Villa
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

35.1%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

35.6%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NEC FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NEC FC than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villa than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

NEC FC - Villa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
10', 0 - 1, Lwanga C. ⚽,
18', 0 - 2, Lwanga C. ⚽,
35', 0 - 3, Gagganga G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
82', 🟥,
87', 0 - 4, Mubiru H. ⚽,
90+2', 1 - 4, Kulanga E. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 and 4).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

NEC may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, NEC won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, NEC won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Villa	5	3	2	0	8:2	6	11
3	NEC FC	4	3	1	0	9:2	7	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NEC FC
Ugandan Super League
09.05.26	Kitara - NEC FC	0:1 ✺
28.04.26	Bul - NEC FC	0:1 ✺
24.04.26	NEC FC - Mbarara City	0:0 ✺
21.04.26	Express - NEC FC	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	NEC FC - Maroons	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 WWTTW
- SC Villa
Ugandan Cup
16.05.26	Villa - Uganda Revenue Authority SC	1:0 ✺
Ugandan Super League
13.05.26	Mbarara City - Villa	1:3 ✺
08.05.26	Villa - Bul	0:0 ✺
Ugandan Cup
04.05.26	Uganda Revenue Authority SC - Villa	0:2 ✺
Ugandan Super League
30.04.26	Kitara - Villa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Ugandan Super League
20.11.25	Villa - NEC FC	2:1
29.11.24	NEC FC - Villa	2:1
29.09.23	Villa - NEC FC	3:0

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