Match Info

Premier League - Round 38

Date: 3 July 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Mechal		Hadiya Hossana

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.00	3.40
	2.02	3	3.4
	2.06	3.17	3.51	Watch
	2.03	3.04	3.58	Watch
	2.02	3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.98)	3.04 ↓ (3.05)	3.46 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mechal
44.5%

Draw
29.5%

Hadiya Hossana
26%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.3%

29.4%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

31.3%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mechal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Hadiya Hossana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mechal than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hadiya Hossana than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Mechal - Hadiya Hossana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 and 12).

Mechal is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hadiya Hossana has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mechal will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mechal won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Mechal won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Mechal	4	3	0	1	5:2	3	9
11	Hadiya Hossana	3	1	1	1	2:2	0	4

Last Results with these Odds

Mechal - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 45.31%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mechal SC
Ethiopian Premier League
28.06.26	Sheger Ketema - Mechal	2:0 ✺
21.06.26	Mechal - Ethiopian Medhin	1:0 ✺
14.06.26	Saint George - Mechal	3:0 ✺
28.05.26	Mechal - Arba Minch	1:2 ✺
19.05.26	Bahir Dar Kenema - Mechal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLLT
- Hadiya Hossana
Ethiopian Premier League
27.06.26	Hadiya Hossana - Dire Dawa City	1:1 ✺
22.06.26	Welwalo Adigrat - Hadiya Hossana	0:1 ✺
15.06.26	Hadiya Hossana - Fasil Kenema	0:1 ✺
29.05.26	Shire Endaselassie - Hadiya Hossana	1:1 ✺
19.05.26	Hadiya Hossana - Ethiopia Nigd Bank	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
04.02.26	Hadiya Hossana - Mechal	1:1
05.06.25	Hadiya Hossana - Mechal	1:1
06.01.25	Mechal - Hadiya Hossana	0:1

Mechal - Hadiya Hossana