Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 33

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Álvarez Claro (Melilla)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Television Melilla


	Melilla		Linares Deportivo

	1	X	2
	2.42	3	2.72
	2.56	3.05	2.92
	2.5	3.04	2.8
	2.48	2.84	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (1.73)	2.98 ↓ (3.4)	2.82 ↓ (4.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melilla
36.8%

Draw
30.7%

Linares Deportivo
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

27.4%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

28.2%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Melilla's form might have worsened.

Linares Deportivo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Linares Deportivo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melilla than the current prediction. (+18.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Melilla, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Linares Deportivo than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Linares Deportivo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Melilla - Linares Deportivo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, Manny ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, Sola J. ⚽,
39', 1 - 2, Talaveron D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
59', 1 - 3, Aranda H. ⚽,
77', 2 - 3, Chavarria M. ⚽,
88', 2 - 4, Velazquez D. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Melilla is Relegated to

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melilla won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Melilla won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 0.7:0.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Melilla won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Linares	5	2	1	2	6:7	-1	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Melilla
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
19.04.26	Recreativo Huelva - Melilla	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Melilla - Águilas	0:1 ✺
05.04.26	Estepona - Melilla	1:1 ✺
28.03.26	Melilla - Almeria B	3:0 ✺
22.03.26	Melilla - Lorca Deportiva	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLTWW
- Linares Deportivo
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
19.04.26	Linares Deportivo - Estepona	2:3 ✺
12.04.26	Xerez Deportivo - Linares Deportivo	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Linares Deportivo - Antoniano	2:0 ✺
28.03.26	Lorca Deportiva - Linares Deportivo	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Linares Deportivo - Puente Genil	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
04.01.26	Linares Deportivo - Melilla	0:0
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
24.03.24	Linares Deportivo - Melilla	0:0
17.12.23	Melilla - Linares Deportivo	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
30.04.17	Melilla - Linares Deportivo	2:0
04.12.16	Linares Deportivo - Melilla	1:2
30.03.16	Melilla - Linares Deportivo	0:0
11.10.15	Linares Deportivo - Melilla	0:0

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