Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 30

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	WebDirecto


	Estepona		Melilla

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.15	3.25
	2.04	3.11	3.81
	1.93	3.22	3.86	Watch
	2.09	3.39	3.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.19)	3.22 ↑ (2.92)	3.58 ↑ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estepona
45.5%

Draw
28.7%

Melilla
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

31.5%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

30.3%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estepona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Melilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estepona than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melilla than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Estepona - Melilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Lorenzo O. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', 1 - 1, Duarte J. ⚽,
71', Ayala 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Estepona is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Melilla has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Estepona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Estepona is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Estepona won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Estepona won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	CD Estepona	5	2	1	2	7:7	0	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Estepona
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
28.03.26	Xerez Deportivo - Estepona	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Estepona - CD Extremadura	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Lorca Deportiva - Estepona	0:2 ✺
08.03.26	Estepona - La Unión	3:2 ✺
01.03.26	Puente Genil - Estepona	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WTWWL
- UD Melilla
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
28.03.26	Melilla - Almeria B	3:0 ✺
22.03.26	Melilla - Lorca Deportiva	2:1 ✺
18.03.26	CD Extremadura - Melilla	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Xerez Deportivo - Melilla	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Melilla - Antoniano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
07.12.25	Melilla - Estepona	3:0
Club Friendly
24.08.25	Estepona - Melilla	0:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
19.03.23	Estepona - Melilla	1:0
30.10.22	Melilla - Estepona	0:0

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