Match Info

ENGLAND: SOUTHERN LEAGUE SOUTH DIVISION - ROUND 28

Date: 14 January 2023, Saturday


	Merthyr Town		Hartley Wintney

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.7	3.5
	1.83	3.8	3.35
	1.85	4.1	3.41
	1.79	3.82	3.66
	1.83	3.75	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (1.84)	3.83 ↓ (3.86)	3.48 ↑ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
50.1%

Draw
23.7%

Hartley Wintney
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

23.4%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.8%

22.6%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Hartley Wintney has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartley Wintney than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Merthyr Town - Hartley Wintney Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 2.

Merthyr is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Hartley Wintney is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Merthyr could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Merthyr will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Merthyr won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
02.01.23	Merthyr Town - Swindon Supermarine	2:1 ✺
26.12.22	Yate Town - Merthyr Town	2:2 ✺
10.12.22	Merthyr Town - Gosport Borough	2:3 ✺
03.12.22	Merthyr Town - Beaconsfield Town	3:2 ✺
26.11.22	Hartley Wintney - Merthyr Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WTLWW
- Hartley Wintney
English Southern League South Division
07.01.23	Hartley Wintney - Dorchester Town	2:4 ✺
02.01.23	Bracknell Town - Hartley Wintney	5:0 ✺
26.12.22	Hartley Wintney - Gosport Borough	3:1 ✺
07.12.22	Harrow Borough - Hartley Wintney	1:0 ✺
03.12.22	Weston-super-Mare - Hartley Wintney	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
26.11.22	Hartley Wintney - Merthyr Town	1:2
15.01.22	Hartley Wintney - Merthyr Town	1:0
14.08.21	Merthyr Town - Hartley Wintney	2:2
30.11.19	Merthyr Town - Hartley Wintney	3:2
29.09.18	Hartley Wintney - Merthyr Town	1:1
English FA Cup
26.09.15	Merthyr Town - Hartley Wintney	0:1

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