Match Info

ENGLAND: SOUTHERN LEAGUE SOUTH DIVISION - ROUND 27

Date: 13 January 2024, Saturday


	Merthyr Town		Beaconsfield Town

	1	X	2
	1.47	4.4	4.75
	1.5	4.5	4.75
	1.51	5.08	4.7
	1.52	4.98	4.66
	1.47	4.6	5.12
	1.5	4.5	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.44)	4.68 ↑ (4.5)	4.79 ↓ (5.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
61.3%

Draw
19.6%

Beaconsfield Town
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.6%

20.3%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.5%

18.8%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Beaconsfield Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Merthyr Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Beaconsfield Town than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 5.

Merthyr in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Beaconsfield is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Merthyr is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Merthyr to win the game is with odds 1.44.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 22-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Merthyr won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
06.01.24	Merthyr Town - Basingstoke Town	4:1 ✺
01.01.24	Hungerford Town - Merthyr Town	1:1 ✺
26.12.23	Merthyr Town - Swindon Supermarine	4:1 ✺
23.12.23	Sholing - Merthyr Town	0:2 ✺
16.12.23	Merthyr Town - Hanwell Town	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTWWW
- Beaconsfield Town
English Southern League South Division
06.01.24	Beaconsfield Town - Swindon Supermarine	3:4 ✺
01.01.24	Hanwell Town - Beaconsfield Town	2:0 ✺
26.12.23	Beaconsfield Town - Chesham United	1:2 ✺
23.12.23	Tiverton Town - Beaconsfield Town	2:2 ✺
16.12.23	Beaconsfield Town - Hungerford Town	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
12.08.23	Beaconsfield Town - Merthyr Town	0:5
07.04.23	Beaconsfield Town - Merthyr Town	3:5
03.12.22	Merthyr Town - Beaconsfield Town	3:2
16.04.22	Beaconsfield Town - Merthyr Town	3:4
28.08.21	Merthyr Town - Beaconsfield Town	4:0
29.02.20	Merthyr Town - Beaconsfield Town	0:0
19.10.19	Beaconsfield Town - Merthyr Town	0:0

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