Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 34

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday


	Merthyr Town		Swindon Supermarine

	1	X	2
	1.36	5	5.75
	1.35	5	6.2
	1.32	5.71	7.07
	1.38	5.29	6.69
	1.34	4.9	6.73
	1.35	5	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.37)	5.15 ↑ (4.87)	6.44 ↑ (6.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
67.9%

Draw
17.8%

Swindon Supermarine
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.9%

18.8%

14.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.8%

17.8%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Swindon Supermarine has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Supermarine than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Merthyr Town - Swindon Supermarine Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Rees R. ⚽,
13', 2 - 0, Evans K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
73', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 4.

Recent matches Merthyr is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Swindon Supermarine is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Swindon Supermarine could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Merthyr is certain favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 23:18 (average 2.1:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Merthyr won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12:8 (average 2.4:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
01.03.25	Totton - Merthyr Town	1:1 ✺
22.02.25	Merthyr Town - Bracknell Town	5:1 ✺
15.02.25	Wimborne Town - Merthyr Town	1:1 ✺
08.02.25	Merthyr Town - Plymouth Parkway	2:2 ✺
04.02.25	Merthyr Town - Basingstoke Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TWTTT
- Swindon Supermarine
English Southern League South Division
04.03.25	Swindon Supermarine - Walton & Hersham	0:3 ✺
01.03.25	Marlow - Swindon Supermarine	0:2 ✺
22.02.25	Swindon Supermarine - Totton	1:1 ✺
15.02.25	Swindon Supermarine - Bracknell Town	1:2 ✺
08.02.25	Dorchester Town - Swindon Supermarine	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
10.09.24	Swindon Supermarine - Merthyr Town	1:5
26.12.23	Merthyr Town - Swindon Supermarine	4:1
28.08.23	Swindon Supermarine - Merthyr Town	0:3
02.01.23	Merthyr Town - Swindon Supermarine	2:1
29.08.22	Swindon Supermarine - Merthyr Town	2:1
18.04.22	Merthyr Town - Swindon Supermarine	1:3
08.02.22	Swindon Supermarine - Merthyr Town	2:0

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