Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 4 April 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Referee: Rapallini F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports


	Metropolitanos		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.1	2.15	Watch
	3.5	3.1	2.15
	3.75	3.15	2.14
	3.84	3.09	2.22
	3.4	3	2.1
	3.52	3.22	2.16	Watch
	3.5	3.05	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.61 ↓ (4.09)	3.1 ↓ (3.38)	2.15 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metropolitanos
26%

Draw
30.3%

Nacional Montevideo
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.5%

27.2%

50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.1%

26.7%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metropolitanos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nacional Montevideo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metropolitanos than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nacional Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	8.3%	91.7%

Metropolitanos - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Nacional Montevideo will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Metropolitanos could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Nacional is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Metropolitanos FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
31.03.23	Metropolitanos - Rayo Zuliano	2:1 ✺
19.03.23	Caracas - Metropolitanos	2:0 ✺
11.03.23	Metropolitanos - Deportivo Táchira	2:0 ✺
03.03.23	Academia Puerto Cabello - Metropolitanos	1:0 ✺
25.02.23	Metropolitanos - Zamora	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLWLL
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
01.04.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:0 ✺
26.03.23	Nacional Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:0 ✺
18.03.23	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
11.03.23	Nacional Montevideo - Boston River	3:1 ✺
04.03.23	Cerro - Nacional Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWTWT

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