Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 3

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel (Maldonado)

Referee: De Armas M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Deportivo Maldonado		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.2	2.15	Watch
	3.3	3.4	1.98
	3.05	3.3	2.15
	3.33	3.46	2.24
	3.15	3.47	2.18	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.2
	3.22	3.34	2.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↓ (3.51)	3.34 ↓ (3.4)	2.15 ↑ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Maldonado
29.2%

Draw
27.8%

Nacional Montevideo
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.3%

27.2%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.2%

26%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Maldonado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Maldonado than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nacional Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Segovia D. (G) 16. Cesar R. 21. Espindola M. 4. Ginzo J. M. 8. Gonzalez M. 3. Menosse H. 10. Noble Sequeira A. M. 17. Ramirez S. 22. Ramos J. 14. Tabo C. 19. Tealde F.	25. Suarez I. (G) 6. Boggio L. 4. Coates S. (C) 10. dos Santos A. 56. Garcia Lantean J. I. 9. Gomez M. 31. Martinez R. 77. Rodriguez N. 2. Rogel A. 27. Veron T. 32. Viera T.
Substitutes
28. Cartagena S. 9. de Leon E. 33. Fuica N. 15. Gonzalez S. 7. Larrazabal G. 11. Lopez G. 5. Nunez L. 12. Ortiz Ferreira V. F. (G) 32. Petryk H. 20. Tormo S.	13. Ancheta E. 26. Arady B. 40. Bianchi J. (G) 15. Calione P. 21. Candido C. 19. De Los Santos J. 7. Lopez N. 18. Nunez P. 5. Pintado J. 8. Vera M.
Coaches
Di Noia G.	Bava J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Boggio L. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Ramirez S. ↓, Cartagena S. ↑,
56', Noble Sequeira A. M. 🟨,
66', Martinez R. ↓, De Los Santos J. ↑,
68', De Los Santos J. 🟨,
69', Tealde F. 🟨,
69', Ginzo J. M. 🟨,
73', Cesar R. ↓, Larrazabal G. ↑,
73', Veron T. ↓, Arady B. ↑,
73', dos Santos A. ↓, Lopez N. ↑,
79', 1 - 0, Tabo C. ⚽,
80', Noble Sequeira A. M. ↓, Nunez L. ↑,
82', Suarez I. 🟨,
82', 2 - 0, Tealde F. ⚽,
83', Coates S. 🟨,
86', Tabo C. ↓, Fuica N. ↑,
86', Espindola M. ↓, de Leon E. ↑,
88', Boggio L. ↓, Nunez P. ↑,
88', Rogel A. ↓, Candido C. ↑,
90+5', 3 - 0, Larrazabal G. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 2.

Maldonado is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nacional is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Maldonado may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Nacional has had a series of home games.

Nacional might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:22. (average 1.4:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Maldonado won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Maldonado	9	5	2	2	13:5	8	17
5	Nacional	9	5	2	2	13:9	4	17

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Maldonado - the odds 3.51 are the expected chance of winning is 26.32%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Nacional Montevideo - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 46.52%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.05.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
18.05.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio	3:1 ✺
11.05.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Boston River	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Cerro - Deportivo Maldonado	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Albion Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWWWL
- Nacional Montevideo
Copa Libertadores
26.05.26	Nacional Montevideo - Coquimbo Unido	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.05.26	Nacional Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.05.26	Nacional Montevideo - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
15.05.26	Montevideo City Torque - Nacional Montevideo	1:2 ✺
10.05.26	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
11.04.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	4:2
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
13.01.26	Nacional Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:0 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.11.24	Nacional Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	5:2
20.05.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	0:2
23.10.23	Nacional Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:3
17.06.23	Nacional Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	4:0
18.03.23	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	0:0

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